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   ACUS11 KWNS 311542   
   SWOMCD   
   SPC MCD 311542=20   
   NCZ000-VAZ000-SCZ000-311945-   
      
   Mesoscale Discussion 0067   
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK   
   0942 AM CST Sat Jan 31 2026   
      
   Areas affected...Piedmont of Upstate South Carolina into North   
   Carolina   
      
   Concerning...Heavy snow=20   
      
   Valid 311542Z - 311945Z   
      
   SUMMARY...Heavy hourly snow rates around or in excess of 1 inch per   
   hour may become increasingly common across the Carolina Piedmont   
   vicinity through 1-4 PM EST.   
      
   DISCUSSION...To this point, it appears that peak hourly snow rates   
   within an area of snow spreading across and to the lee of the   
   southern Appalachians have remained relatively modest.  Precipitable   
   water across the Piedmont is generally around or below .35 inches,   
   with lower values to the west/northwest.  Saturating temperature   
   profiles are well below freezing, but temperatures conducive to   
   dendritic ice crystal growth appear initially centered around 700   
   mb, somewhat low and perhaps not most optimal for larger dendritic   
   ice crystal growth and aggregation.   
      
   However, latest model output suggests that the deep, digging   
   upstream short wave trough/elongated cyclonic circulation will   
   gradually take on a more neutral orientation while pivoting across   
   and southwest of the southern Appalachians through 18-21Z.=20   
   Increasingly difluent and divergent mid/upper flow to the northeast   
   of this feature is forecast to contribute to a period of   
   strengthening upward vertical motion across the Carolina Piedmont.=20   
   This may be enhanced by a band of strengthening frontogenetic   
   forcing in the 800-700 mb layer, where forecast soundings indicate   
   cooling profiles will contribute to further lowering, but deepening,   
   of the dendritic growth zone.  As this occurs, high resolution model   
   output, among other guidance, suggests increasing potential for   
   hourly snow rates in excess of 1 inch per hour, which may persist,   
   at least on an off, through much of the afternoon.   
      
   ..Kerr.. 01/31/2026   
      
   ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=   
   g!67lltuLcrb80UL7_1ekI1jpdoJq9yc6-Te4BFuw3KzyqurxSsJKYGi5oJWbebyLGTnXEPBh0W=   
   q4kSlRHazVeHGYGu6Y$  for graphic product...   
      
   ATTN...WFO...RAH...RNK...CAE...GSP...   
      
   LAT...LON   35548200 36768021 35767929 34778073 34438187 35548200=20   
      
      
   =3D =3D =3D   
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