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   TID: SBBSecho 3.28-Linux master/123f2d28a Jul 12 2025 GCC 12.2.0   
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   389    
   AXNT20 KNHC 311053   
   TWDAT    
      
   Tropical Weather Discussion   
   NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL   
   1215 UTC Sat Jan 31 2026   
      
   Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America   
   Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South   
   America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the   
   Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite   
   imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.   
      
   Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1045 UTC.   
      
   ...SPECIAL FEATURES...   
      
   Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: A strong cold front extends from   
   low pressure over NE Georgia southwestward to the Big Bend of    
   Florida, and continues to 25N87W and to inland Mexico near 19N95W.   
   Fresh to strong NW to N winds and building seas are in the wake    
   of the front as it quickly moves southeastward across the area. It   
   will exit the basin by early this afternoon. The low pressure    
   will track NE while rapidly intensifying off the Carolina coast    
   through tonight as another blast of arctic air surges across the    
   Gulf sustaining gale force winds offshore Veracruz into early this   
   morning, and across the eastern Gulf through late late tonight,    
   with rough to very rough seas across the basin. Gale force winds    
   may briefly gusts to storm force over the NE Gulf. Looking ahead,    
   winds and seas will diminish from W to E across the Gulf Sun    
   through Mon as high pressure shifts eastward across the northern    
   Gulf in the wake of the front.   
      
   Atlantic Gale Warning: Low pressure of 1011 mb is just N of the    
   area near 31N76W. The low will slowly track NE offshore the    
   Carolina coast through tonight while expanding and rapidly    
   intensifying. The low will part of complex low pressure system    
   with a mean center as it tracks to the NE. A strong arctic cold    
   front associated with this system is currently moving through the    
   eastern Gulf of Mexico. It will cross Florida today and sweep   
   across the western Atlantic through late Sun. In its wake, a very    
   large area of westerly strong gale force winds and rapidly rising    
   seas will cover the waters N of about 24N and west of 60W Sat    
   through Sun evening, before lifting N of the area Sun night. Gusts   
   to storm force will be possible with these winds. The front is    
   expected to reach from near 31N71W to eastern Cuba this evening,    
   from near 31N60W to eastern Hispaniola Sun evening, then begin to    
   weaken and stall from near 26N55W to eastern Puerto Rico Mon    
   evening. In the wake of the front, large long period NW swell will    
   impact the waters N and E of the Bahamas from this evening through    
   early next week. High pressure will shift E roughly along 29N next    
   week. Mariners should monitor the forecasts for today and beyond,    
   and prepare to execute avoidance plans from these upcoming rapidly    
   changing conditions.    
      
   Please read the latest High Seas and Offshore Waters Forecasts   
   issued by the National Hurricane Center at websites:   
   https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml   
   and   
   https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores.php   
   for more information on both events.   
      
   ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...   
      
   The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of    
   Guinea near 11N15W and continues southwestward to 02N22W, where it   
   transitions to the ITCZ to 01N30W and to just inland the coast    
   of Brazil near 01S48W. Scattered moderate convection is noted    
   within 60 nm north of the ITCZ between 25W-34W and within 30 nm   
   of the ITCZ between 19W-25W. Similar activity is to the southeast    
   of the trough within 30 nm of line from 03N12W to 01N19W.   
      
   ...GULF OF MEXICO...   
      
   Please see the Special Features section above for information   
   about a Gale Warning in the SW Gulf soon to end and for    
   anoyher Gale Warning for the eastern Gulf.   
      
   East of the cold front described in the Special Features section,   
   moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas prevail.   
      
   For the forecast, another cold front is expected to enter the NW    
   Gulf early Wed and reach from the Florida panhandle to the western   
   Gulf by late Wed..   
      
   ...CARIBBEAN SEA...    
      
   A surface trough extends from the central Bahamas southward    
   across central Cuba, to a weak 1013 mb low just south of Cuba   
   at 21.5N79W. The trough continues to 10N82W. Moderate to fresh    
   northerly winds and moderate seas are west of the trough to near   
   84.5W. Meanwhile, moderate to fresh eastern winds and moderate    
   seas are occurring in the south-central and eastern Caribbean.    
   Elsewhere, moderate or lighter winds and slight to moderate seas    
   are prevalent.   
      
   For the forecast, an unusually strong cold front that is    
   currently moving through the eastern and central Gulf of Mexico   
   will move into the northwestern Caribbean this morning overtaking    
   the trough. The cold front will reach from the vicinity of the    
   Windward Passage to 15N76W and to Panama late tonight, and from    
   Puerto Rico to NE Colombia by Sun evening. It will then begin to    
   stall from eastern Puerto Rico to northwest Venezuela by early    
   Mon. Strong to near gale force N winds and rough seas are expected   
   behind this front. By early Tue, fresh to strong N to NW winds    
   will over just about the entire basin roughly west of a line from   
   the Virgin Islands to NE Colombia along with seas to near 12 ft.    
   These winds and seas diminish slightly in coverage on Wed.    
      
   ...ATLANTIC OCEAN...   
      
   Please see the Special Features section above for information   
   about a Gale Warning for the western Atlantic.   
      
   The pressure gradient is tightening in the western waters of the   
   tropical Atlantic due to an approaching cold front that is    
   currently moving through the eastern Gulf of Mexico. Scattered   
   moderate convection is seen east of the Bahamas from 23N to 28N    
   between 71W and 75W. This activity is being sustained by an upper-   
   level disturbance riding along a subtropical jetstream branch that   
   passes over that part of the area. A surface trough extends from    
   near 28N76W to the central Bahamas and to central Cuba. Moderate    
   to locally strong east to southeast winds are between 65W and 76W    
   as depicted in an overnight scatterometer satellite data pass.    
   Seas over these waters are about 6 to 8 ft.   
      
   Farther east, a frontal trough extends from near 31N45W to 25N54W,   
   and another trough extends from near 31N52W to 27N62W, and yet    
   another trough is analyzed from 24N61W to just north of the north-   
   central Dominican Republic. Moderate to fresh southwest winds are    
   east of the first trough to near 37W and north of about 27.5N.   
   Seas are 8 to 10 ft in NW swell within the area of these winds.    
   Isolated showers are possible near these troughs. The remainder    
   of the basin is under the influence of a 1025 mb high that is near   
   29N27W. Moderate to fresh trades and rough seas are found south    
   of a line from the Canary Islands to the Leeward Islands.    
   Meanwhile, NW swell is producing rough seas north of the    
   aforementioned line and east of 35W and also north of the    
   dissipating stationary front and east of 65W. Elsewhere,   
   moderate or lighter winds and moderate seas prevail.   
      
   For the forecast west of 55W, please, see the Special Features    
   section for more information.   
      
   $$   
   Aguirre   
   --- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux   
    * Origin: Capitol City Online (1:2320/105)   
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