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   AXNT20 KNHC 301046   
   TWDAT    
      
   Tropical Weather Discussion   
   NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL   
   1215 UTC Fri Jan 30 2026   
      
   Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America   
   Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South   
   America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the   
   Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite   
   imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.   
      
   Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1030 UTC.   
      
   ...SPECIAL FEATURES...   
      
   Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: A cold front has recently moved   
   offshore the coast of Texas and southwest Louisiana. Fresh to    
   strong NW to N winds and building seas will follow the front as it   
   reaches from Panama City, Florida to just N of Veracruz, Mexico    
   by this evening. The low will rapidly deepen through Sat as it    
   moves into the western Atlantic. This will reinforce the front as    
   it exits to the southeast of the basin on Sat, and usher in    
   another blast of arctic air across the Gulf that will support    
   winds to gale-force near Veracruz tonight into early on Sat, and    
   across the eastern Gulf Sat through Sat evening, with rough to    
   very rough seas across the basin. Looking ahead, winds and seas    
   will diminish from W to E across the Gulf Sun through Mon as high    
   pressure shifts SE into the northern Gulf following the front.   
      
   Atlantic Gale Warning: A cold front will stall this morning over the   
   NW forecast waters, then lift back N of the area through late    
   this afternoon ahead of a complex low pressure system that tracks    
   NE just offshore the Carolina coast. This system will send an    
   unusually strong and powerful arctic cold front off the northeast    
   Florida coast Sat morning. The associated complex low pressure is    
   forecast to deepen rapidly across the NW Atlantic Sat through Sun,   
   becoming quite powerful and inducing a very large area of    
   westerly gale-force winds covering the local waters N of about    
   23.5N, and the central Bahamas, Sat through Sun evening, before    
   lifting N of the area Sun night. The front is expected to reach    
   from near 31N73W to eastern Cuba Sat evening, from 31N60W to    
   eastern Hispaniola Sun evening, then begin to weaken and stall    
   from bear 27N55W to eastern Puerto Rico Mon evening. In the wake    
   of the front, large long-period NW swell will impact the waters N    
   and E of the Bahamas from late Sat through early next week.    
   Mariners should monitor the forecasts for Sat and beyond, and    
   prepare to execute avoidance plans from these conditions.   
      
   Of note: With the aforementioned cold front, a potentially record   
   breaking cold snap is possible late weekend into early next week    
   in South Florida. Near freezing to sub-freezing low temperatures    
   are possible for a large area of South Florida early Sun, Mon and   
   Tue morning. Lows in the 30s could reach as far south as Miami    
   Dade County with wind chills in the 20s across all of South Florida.   
      
   Please, read the latest High Seas Forecast, at   
   https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml , for more information.   
      
   ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...   
      
   The monsoon trough axis enters the Atlantic through the coast of    
   Guinea near 10N14W, and continues southwestward to 02N20W, where    
   it transitions to the ITCZ to 01N30W to 01N40W and to 00N50W.    
   Scattered moderate convection is seen within 180 nm north of    
   the ITCZ between 23W-33W.   
      
   GULF OF MEXICO...   
      
   See the Special Features section above for information on a Gale   
   Warning expected to begin late tonight.    
      
   High pressure of 1022 mb is centered over the NE Gulf near 29N84W.    
   It related gradient is allowing for moderate or lighter winds and   
   slight to moderate seas across the basin. Overnight scatterometer    
   satellite data passes reveal fairly light winds over most the   
   basin. A cold front has recently moved into the NW Gulf from the    
   southwest Louisiana coast to just offshore the Texas coast. A    
   trough is analyzed south of the front from 27N97W to 22N97W and    
   to just offshore Veracruz. Broken to overcast low stratus type    
   clouds and patches of fog are evident south of 28N and west of    
   94W. Isolated showers are possible in this area of the Gulf.   
      
   For the forecast, the cold front that recently moved to just   
   offshore the Texas coast will be followed by fresh to strong NW    
   to N winds and building seas as it reaches from Panama City,    
   Florida to just N of Veracruz, Mexico by Fri evening. The low will   
   rapidly deepen Fri through Sat as it moves into the western    
   Atlantic. This will reinforce the front as it exits to the    
   southeast of the basin on Sat, and usher in another blast of arctic    
   air across the Gulf that will support winds to gale-force near    
   Veracruz Fri night into early on Sat, and across the eastern Gulf    
   Sat through Sat evening, with rough to very rough seas across the    
   basin. Looking ahead, winds and seas will diminish from W to E    
   across the Gulf Sun through Mon as high pressure shifts SE into the    
   northern Gulf following the front.    
      
   CARIBBEAN SEA...    
      
   A shearline is analyzed from the Windward Passage to just    
   northwest of Jamaica and continues to 17N80W and to just north of    
   northern Panama near 10N82W. Isolated showers are possible    
   near the shearline. Moderate to locally fresh N winds are found    
   south of 19N and in the lee of Cuba. Seas behind the shearline are   
   slight to moderate. Fresh to strong northeast winds and seas of    
   5 to 7 ft are over the south-central Caribbean. Moderate to    
   locally fresh trades are over he north-central and eastern    
   sections of the sea as seen in overnight scatterometer satellite   
   data passes over those areas of the sea. Elsewhere, moderate or    
   weaker winds and slight to moderate seas are present.   
      
   For the forecast, a unusually strong cold front is forecast to    
   move into the northwestern Caribbean Sat morning and move    
   southeastward merging with the remnants of the shearline from    
   eastern Cuba to western Panama Sat evening. The cold front will    
   reach from eastern Hispaniola to the northwest coast of Colombia    
   Sun evening, then begin to stall from eastern Puerto Rico to    
   northwest Colombia by early Tue. Strong to near gale-force N winds   
   and rough seas are expected behind this front.    
      
   ATLANTIC OCEAN...   
      
   See the Special Features section above for information on a Gale   
   Warning for a portion of the western Atlantic. It is expected to    
   begin on Sat afternoon.   
      
   A stationary front extends from 31N49W to 24N60W and to northwest    
   Haiti. A trough is out ahead of the front along a position from    
   23N54W to the northeast Caribbean near 17N65W. Broken to overcast   
   low and mid-level clouds with possible embedded isolated showers    
   are noted south of 26N between 64W and 73W. Otherwise, high    
   pressure dominates much of the SW N Atlantic, supporting moderate    
   to fresh easterly winds and seas of 5 to 8 ft south of 25N and    
   west of the aforementioned front. Moderate to locally strong W-NW    
   winds and seas of 8 to 12 ft are north of 28N and west of the    
   aforementioned front to 75W. Fresh to strong SW winds and seas of    
   10 to 12 ft are north of 27N and east of the front to 38W.   
      
   The remainder of the basin is under the influence of a broad   
   subtropical ridge centered over the NE Atlantic that extends   
   southeastward to Hispaniola. Moderate to locally fresh easterly   
   winds and moderate to rough seas are evident south of 20N and west    
   of 35W. Moderate to fresh northeast to east winds and rough seas are    
   occurring from 13N to 25N and east of 35W. Large northerly swell    
   spreads across the eastern Atlantic due to a strong low pressure    
   well north of the area. Rough to very rough seas are reaching the    
   Madeira and Canary Islands. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and    
   moderate seas prevail.   
      
   For the forecast west of 55W, a cold front will move between    
   northeast Florida and Bermuda tonight, but stall early Fri and    
   lift north of the area through late Fri ahead of a complex low    
   pressure system moving into the Carolina coast. This system will    
   send an unusually strong and powerful arctic cold front off the    
   northeast Florida coast Sat morning. The associated complex low    
   pressure is forecast to deepen rapidly across the NW Atlantic Sat    
   through Sun, becoming quite powerful and inducing a very large area    
   of westerly gale-force winds covering the local waters north of    
   about 23.5N, and the central Bahamas, Sat through Sun evening,    
   before lifting N of the area Sun night. The front is expected to    
   reach from near 31N73W to eastern Cuba Sat evening, from 31N60W to    
   eastern Hispaniola Sun evening, then begin to weaken and stall from    
   bear 27N55W to eastern Puerto Rico Mon evening. In the wake of the    
   front, large long-period NW swell will impact the waters N and E of    
   the Bahamas from late Sat through early next week. Mariners should    
   monitor the forecasts for Sat and beyond, and prepare to execute    
   avoidance plans from these conditions.    
      
   $$   
   Aguirre   
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