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   FOUS11 KWBC 300739   
   QPFHSD   
      
   Probabilistic Heavy Snow and Icing Discussion   
   NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD   
   239 AM EST Fri Jan 30 2026   
      
   Valid 12Z Fri Jan 30 2026 - 12Z Mon Feb 02 2026   
      
      
   ...Southern Appalachians, Mid-Atlantic, & Southern New England...=20   
   Days 1-3...   
      
   ...A major winter storm is expected to produce heavy snowfall and=20   
   blizzard conditions across the southern Mid-Atlantic...   
      
   Meteorological Overview...   
      
   An arctic air mass anchored over the eastern U.S. will set the=20   
   stage for an amplifying shortwave trough over the OH Valley to=20   
   produce a major winter storm over the southern Appalachians and=20   
   southern Mid-Atlantic beginning later this afternoon and continuing   
   into the weekend. Snow over the TN Valley this morning will move=20   
   into the southern/central Appalachians this afternoon due to low-   
   level WAA, increasing PVA aloft, and upslope enhancement. As the=20   
   upper trough sharpens over/near the OH/MS Confluence, a robust=20   
   >100kt 500mb jet streak will place its divergent left-exit region=20   
   over the southern Mid-Atlantic and snow will envelop much of the=20   
   Appalachians and Piedmont of the Southeast early Saturday morning.=20   
      
   On Saturday, the 500mb shortwave will take on a N-S neutral tilt=20   
   over the TN Valley and close off as it enters NW GA. PVA becomes=20   
   maximized over the Southeast while a surface low spawns along a=20   
   coastal front east of the Carolinas (with an additional surface low   
   moving out of the Bahamas). As the 850mb low deepens over northern   
   GA and heads east into SC, easterly 850mb theta-e advection will=20   
   direct low-level moisture around the 850mb low and support a band=20   
   of moderate-to-heavy snow from northeastern GA to central SC.=20   
   Farther north, the same tongue of 850mb theta-e is funneling along=20   
   the 850mb front to the north of the 850mb low track from northern=20   
   SC on east through much of NC. This is where the deformation zone=20   
   is likely to form, pivoting over central to eastern NC and northern   
   SC with 1-2"/hr snowfall rates likely. This band of heavy snow is=20   
   likely to reach farther east toward the Outer Banks (HREF=20   
   probabilities of >1"/hr at 00Z Sun, the end of the run, are >30%)=20   
   where 700mb FGEN is more ideally placed to support strong vertical=20   
   velocities within a fully saturated DGZ. These bands of heavy snow=20   
   in eastern NC and southeast VA depict 700-500mb lapse rates=20   
   >6.5C/km Saturday afternoon and evening. It is here where not only=20   
   2"/hr snowfall rates are achievable, but so is the likelihood for=20   
   thundersnow. Note that the intense vertical velocities in eastern=20   
   NC and extreme southeast VA may result in some subsidence in north-   
   central NC and south-central VA. Snowfall is still likely to reach   
   warning criteria, but these regions are potentially susceptible to   
   lesser snowfall amounts as they are caught between the influence=20   
   of the strong upper-low to the south, and the strengthening coastal   
   low.   
      
   Speaking of the coastal low, along the VA/NC/SC coasts, not only=20   
   will the deformation zone of heavy snow pivot through, but the=20   
   explosive deepening of the storm east of Cape Hatteras will support   
   strong to potentially damaging wind gusts. ECMWF shows low=20   
   pressure south of Hatteras around 1008mb 12Z Saturday dropping to=20   
   around 970mb by 12Z Sunday east of Hatteras, indicative of rapid=20   
   intensification. With strong high pressure to the west, a strong=20   
   isallobaric flow will develop in response, creating wind gusts=20   
   along the DelMarVa coast on south through the Outer Banks that=20   
   could approach hurricane-force at times. These coastal areas=20   
   overlap with the ECMWF EFI in >0.8 values for both snow and wind,=20   
   making these areas most susceptible to blizzard conditions. Not to=20   
   be ignored either, strong wind gusts atop the Smokeys and Blue=20   
   Ridge are likely to top 60 mph as well, resulting in possible=20   
   blizzard conditions in those higher elevations of the southern=20   
   Appalachians. Power outages are likely in some parts of the=20   
   southern Mid-Atlantic, particularly areas at risk for those=20   
   hurricane-force wind gusts along the VA/NC coast.   
      
   Latest trends nudged the QPF footprint a bit southward but still=20   
   focused on NC into SC and grazing southeastern VA. By Sunday, the=20   
   trend of the system as it makes its closest pass to New England is=20   
   to be a bit farther southeast (away from the coast), and have=20   
   trended down the snow there in response. Locations that remain=20   
   susceptible are Cape Cod, Martha's Vineyard, and especially=20   
   Nantucket where WPC probabilities for at least 4 inches of snow are   
   around 50%.   
      
      
   Snowfall & Impacts...   
      
   For the event, WPC probabilities for at least 8 inches of snow are   
   >50% from the Blue Ridge/Smokeys eastward across most of NC and=20   
   half of SC and along the VA/NC border. Eastern NC has the highest=20   
   chances (30-50%) of at least a foot of snow, depending on and band=20   
   placement. For context, some locations may see snowfall amounts not   
   seen since the 1970s/1980s (e.g., Feb. 1973, March 1980, or Dec.=20   
   1989) and could be a top ten event snowfall.=20   
      
   The snowfall could also be highly disruptive, not just during the=20   
   event, but for days after it is long gone. WSSI shows an expansive=20   
   area of Major Impacts (considerable disruptions to daily life;=20   
   dangerous to impossible travel, widespread closures, disruptions to   
   infrastructure) from central SC (including Columbia, SC) through=20   
   the eastern two-thirds of NC (Charlotte/Raleigh-Durham). Along the=20   
   coast, WSSI shows Major to locally Extreme conditions from the=20   
   VA/NC border southward into the OBX and along the north and east-=20   
   facing shores of the Pamlico and Albemarle sounds, largely due the=20   
   blizzard potential and heavy snow. This speaks to the severity of=20   
   this major winter storm in the Carolinas. Lastly, with frigid=20   
   temperatures in the storm's wake on Sunday and lasting into=20   
   Tuesday, the snow will not melt much following the conclusion of=20   
   the storm. Any melting that occurs thanks to daytime heating is=20   
   likely to cause refreezing on untreated roads and surfaces.=20   
   Residents in the Carolinas should finish preparations as soon as=20   
   possible, as road conditions will be treacherous Saturday and into=20   
   the first half of next week.   
      
   Elsewhere, travel disruptions are possible as far south and west=20   
   as the Atlanta metro area where the WSSI shows Minor impacts with a   
   chance for an inch or so of snow on Saturday. Measurable snow may=20   
   cause hazardous travel as far west as the TN Valley and as far=20   
   south as Savannah where snowfall accumulations up to 1" are=20   
   possible. Moderate impacts (hazardous travel and some=20   
   infrastructure impacts) are also forecast in Charleston (SC), the=20   
   Smokeys/Blue Ridge of western NC/TN, and as far north as the=20   
   southern Richmond, VA suburbs. Impacts are still unclear in=20   
   southeast MA, but any snowfall will likely be accompanied by gusty=20   
   winds, causing blowing snow and reduced visibilities.=20   
      
      
   ...Great Lakes...   
   Day 1...   
      
   Cyclonic flow will continue to favor lake effect snow across the=20   
   Great Lakes for another 36 hours or so. Frigid 850mb temperatures=20   
   will persist (around -18 to -24C, which are below the 10th=20   
   climatological percentile) over the rapidly freezing lakes. The N-S   
   band over Lake Michigan this morning will likely graze the WI/IL=20   
   shore before aiming into NW Indiana this evening/overnight as the=20   
   elongated vorticity lobe swings through. WPC probabilities for at=20   
   least 4 inches of snow are highest (40-60%) around Gary, IN.=20   
   Leftover lake snow on northerly flow will relax on Saturday as high   
   pressure briefly builds in from the west.=20   
      
      
   ...Northern Great Plains, Upper Midwest, and western Great Lakes...   
   Days 1-3...   
      
   Tonight, a Pacific shortwave trough escorts Pacific moisture=20   
   eastward into the Northern Plains by Saturday morning, then into=20   
   the Upper Midwest Saturday evening into Sunday. Patches of freezing   
   rain in the northern High Plains on late Friday into Saturday are=20   
   expected given the favorable overrunning from WAA at low-mid levels   
   and sub-freezing surface temps. Farther east, snow is the more=20   
   likely precip type from the Red River of the North southward to the   
   Missouri Valley, then east to the Mississippi River and MN=20   
   Arrowhead/U.P/WI. Snow totals are forecast to range between 1-3" in   
   these areas late Saturday through Sunday into early Monday. Some=20   
   hazardous travel is possible, especially where roads temperatures=20   
   are likely below freezing in the wake of the recent extreme cold.   
      
      
   Fracasso/Mullinax   
      
      
   ...Winter Storm Key Messages are in effect. Please see current=20   
    Key Messages below...   
      
   https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/key_messages/Late=   
   stKeyMessage_1.png__;!!DZ3fjg!_3gsfWHd4Rifi_CbV855Uh95BwMUxebkCOtdGLmsOVMQr=   
   5vQiqjacEqqVbSCNFdjb1Vfzm2V8IUKW9U7ZZxrzndtSh8$=20   
      
   https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/key_messages/Late=   
   stKeyMessage_2.png__;!!DZ3fjg!_3gsfWHd4Rifi_CbV855Uh95BwMUxebkCOtdGLmsOVMQr=   
   5vQiqjacEqqVbSCNFdjb1Vfzm2V8IUKW9U7ZZxr0nsBM1M$=20   
      
      
      
   $$   
      
   =3D =3D =3D   
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