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   FOUS11 KWBC 292015   
   QPFHSD   
      
   Probabilistic Heavy Snow and Icing Discussion   
   NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD   
   315 PM EST Thu Jan 29 2026   
      
   Valid 00Z Fri Jan 30 2026 - 00Z Mon Feb 02 2026   
      
      
   ...Southern Appalachians, Mid-Atlantic, & Southern New England...=20   
   Days 1-3...   
      
   ...A major winter storm is expected to produce heavy snowfall=20   
   across the southern Mid-Atlantic, blizzard conditions along the=20   
   Mid- Atlantic coasts, & potentially heavy snow in southern New=20   
   England...   
      
   Meteorological Overview...   
      
   An arctic air-mass anchored over the eastern U.S. will set the   
   stage for an amplifying shortwave trough over the OH Valley to   
   produce a major winter storm over the southern Appalachians and=20   
   southern Mid-Atlantic beginning Friday afternoon and continuing   
   into the weekend. Snow will begin as early as Friday morning=20   
   across the TN Valley and east to the southern/central Appalachians=20   
   due to low-level WAA, increasing PVA aloft, plus upslope=20   
   enhancement into the Appalachians. As the upper trough sharpens=20   
   over near the OH/MS Confluence, a robust >100kt 500mb jet streak=20   
   will place its divergent left-exit region over the southern Mid-=20   
   Atlantic and snow will envelop much of the Appalachians and=20   
   Piedmont of the Southeast come early Saturday morning.=20   
      
   By 12Z Saturday, most guidance is in agreement that the 500mb   
   shortwave takes on a more neutral tilt (oriented N-S) over the TN   
   Valley and becomes a closed low over GA. PVA becomes maximized=20   
   over the Southeast while a surface low spawns along a coastal=20   
   front east of the Carolinas. As the 850mb low deepens over northern   
   GA and heads east into SC, easterly 850mb theta-e advection will=20   
   direct low-level moisture around the 850mb low and support a band=20   
   of moderate-to-heavy snow from northern GA to central SC. Farther=20   
   north, the same tongue of 850mb theta-e is funneling along the=20   
   850mb front to the north of the 850mb low track from northern SC=20   
   on east through the heart of NC. This is where the deformation zone   
   is likely to form, pivoting over central NC and northern SC with=20   
   1-2"/hr snowfall rates likely. This band of heavy snow is likely to   
   ensue farther east into southeast VA, where 700mb FGEN is more=20   
   ideally placed to support strong vertical velocities within a fully   
   saturated DGZ. Similar to NC, look for intense bands of heavy snow   
   over southeast VA to form late Saturday afternoon and persist into   
   Saturday night. These bands of heavy snow in eastern NC and=20   
   southeast VA depict 700-500mb lapse rates >6.5C/km Saturday=20   
   afternoon and evening. It is here where not only are 2"/hr snowfall   
   rates achievable, but so is the likelihood for thundersnow. The   
   intense vertical velocities in eastern NC and southeast VA may   
   result in some subsidence in north-central NC and south-central VA.   
   Snowfall is still likely to reach warning criteria, but these   
   regions are potentially susceptible to lesser snowfall amounts as   
   they are caught between the influence of the strong upper-low to   
   the south, and the strengthening coastal low.   
      
   Speaking of the coastal low, along the coast VA/NC/SC coasts, not=20   
   only will the deformation zone of heavy snow pivot through, but the   
   explosive deepening of the storm east of Cape Hatteras will=20   
   support strong to potentially damaging wind gusts. Latest ECMWF=20   
   shows low pressure south of Hatteras is around 1007mb at 12Z=20   
   Saturday, then by 12Z Sunday is 972mb east of Hatteras, indicative=20   
   of rapid intensification. With strong high pressure to the west, a=20   
   strong isallobaric flow will develop in response, creating wind=20   
   gusts along the DelMarVa coast on south through the Outer Banks=20   
   that could approach hurricane-force at times. These coastal areas=20   
   overlap with the ECMWF EFI in >0.8 values for both snow and wind,=20   
   making these areas most susceptible to blizzard conditions. Not to=20   
   be ignored either, strong wind gusts atop the Smokeys and Blue=20   
   Ridge are likely to top 60 mph as well, resulting in possible=20   
   blizzard conditions in those higher elevations of the southern=20   
   Appalachians. Power outages are likely in some parts of the   
   southern Mid-Atlantic, particularly areas at risk for those   
   hurricane-force wind gusts along the VA/NC coast.   
      
   While there is still some uncertainty in storm track, most guidance   
   (including AIFS ensembles) have continued to trend lower in   
   snowfall amounts from northern VA on north and east along I-95 to=20   
   the Tri-state area. There remains a high degree of uncertainty over   
   southeast MA where the differences in the EPS-AIFS 75th and 25th=20   
   percentile snowfall outcomes south of Boston still are quite=20   
   striking. The locations that should still contend with periods of=20   
   snow are Martha's Vineyard and Nantucket given their closer=20   
   proximity to the snow shield.=20   
      
   Snowfall & Impacts...   
      
   WPC probabilities for the duration of the event show moderate-to-   
   high chances (50-80%) for snowfall totals >8" in the Blue   
   Ridge/Smokeys, west-central NC on east through northern SC,   
   southern NC, and along the Tidewater regions of VA/NC. It is   
   southeast VA, eastern NC, and southern NC that feature the highest   
   odds for snowfall totals >12" at 40-60%. Wilmington, NC has at   
   least a 50% chance of receiving >12" of snow. For context, dating=20   
   back to 1870, Wilmington, NC has only observed 3 instances where=20   
   >12" of snowfall occurred: Feb 1896, Feb 1973, and Dec 1989.=20   
      
   The snowfall likely to occur across the Carolinas has a good=20   
   chance to be not just significant but historic and highly=20   
   disruptive, not just during the event, but for days after it is=20   
   long gone. WSSI shows an expansive area of Major Impacts=20   
   (considerable disruptions to daily life; dangerous to impossible=20   
   travel, widespread closures, disruptions to infrastructure) from=20   
   central SC (including Columbia, SC) through the eastern two-thirds=20   
   of NC (Charlotte/Raleigh- Durham). The WSSI-P shows low-to-   
   moderate chances (20-50%) for Extreme Impacts (per the WSSI=20   
   legend: extremely dangerous conditions, life saving actions may be   
   needed) in southern NC, including the I-95 corridor from=20   
   Fayetteville, NC to Florence, SC. Along the coast, WSSI shows Major   
   to locally Extreme conditions along VA Beach on south into the=20   
   northern OBX and along the north and east-facing shores facing the   
   Pamlico and Albemarle sounds, largely due the blizzard potential=20   
   and heavy snow. This speaks to the severity of this major winter=20   
   storm in the Carolinas. Lastly, with frigid temperatures in the=20   
   storm's wake on Sunday and lasting into Tuesday, the snow will not=20   
   melt much following the conclusion of the storm. Any melting that=20   
   occurs thanks to daytime heating is likely to cause refreezing on=20   
   untreated roads and surfaces. Residents in the Carolinas should=20   
   finish preparations as soon as possible, as road conditions will be   
   treacherous Saturday and into the first half of next week.   
      
   Elsewhere, travel disruptions are possible as far south and west as   
   the Atlanta metro area where the WSSI (as of this discussion's   
   issuance) shows Minor Impacts. Look for measurable snow to cause   
   hazardous travel as far west as the TN Valley and as far south as   
   Savannah where snowfall accumulations up to 1" is possible.   
   Moderate Impacts (hazardous travel and some infrastructure   
   impacts) are also forecast in Charleston, SC in the Smokeys/Blue=20   
   Ridge of western NC/TN, and as far north as the southern Richmond,=20   
   VA suburbs. Impacts are still unclear in southeast MA, but expect=20   
   blowing snow to cause reduced visibilities in the southeast MA=20   
   islands.=20   
      
      
   ...Great Lakes...   
   Days 1-2...   
      
   Cyclonic flow will continue to favor lake effect snow across the=20   
   Great Lakes into the first half of the weekend. Frigid 850mb=20   
   temperatures will persist with temperatures around -18 to -24C,=20   
   which are below the 10th climatological percentile. WNW flow will=20   
   turn more northerly (even NNE for a time) as the sharp 500mb=20   
   shortwave passes over the Great Lakes tonight. On Friday, northerly   
   flow continues Friday with NNE flow possible into Chicagoland=20   
   carrying a LES band into the region overnight into Saturday.=20   
      
   Latest guidance has favored the heavier snow over far northwest=20   
   IN, although localized totals approaching 4" along the Lake Michigan   
   shores in Chicago are possible. Most snowfall winds downs late=20   
   Saturday into early Sunday as surface high pressure builds in overhead.   
   Single band off Lake Ontario will weaken starting this afternoon=20   
   but persist through Friday. For days 1-2, WPC probabilities for at=20   
   least 4 inches of snow are >50% over parts of the Michigan U.P. and   
   downwind of Lake Ontario near Oswego, where additional snowfall up   
   to 8" are possible.   
      
   ...Northern Great Plains & Upper Midwest...   
   Days 1-3...   
      
   Two rounds of snow are expected; one this evening and into Friday   
   morning, then the other starting late Friday night and continuing   
   into the weekend. Weak 850-700mb WAA and FGEN will support light   
   snow over the western Dakotas and into the Nebraska Sand Hills   
   tonight and Friday AM. Snowfall totals are likely to range between   
   1-3" in these areas by the time snow concludes late Friday=20   
   morning, with the Black Hills sporting low chances (10-30%) for=20   
   snowfall total over 4". By Friday night, a Pacific shortwave trough   
   escorts Pacific moisture eastward into the Northern Plains=20   
   Saturday morning, then into the Upper Midwest Saturday evening into   
   Sunday. Patches of freezing rain in the northern High Plains on=20   
   late Friday into Saturday are expected given the favorable=20   
   overrunning from WAA at low-mid levels and sub-freezing surface=20   
   temps. Farther east, snow is the more likely precip type from the=20   
   Red River of the North on south to the Missouri Valley, then east=20   
   to the Mississippi river and MN Arrowhead. Snow totals are forecast   
   to range between 1-3" in these areas late Saturday into Sunday.=20   
   Some hazardous travel is possible, especially where roads=20   
   temperatures are likely below freezing in the wake of the recent=20   
   extreme cold.   
      
      
   Mullinax   
      
      
      
   ...Winter Storm Key Messages are in effect. Please see current=20   
    Key Messages below...   
      
   https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/key_messages/Late=   
   stKeyMessage_1.png__;!!DZ3fjg!9uwfHTIrXu4nB5pX8IiYt7LWwCT8oOZLhh6Q6IBpUX5Qs=   
   3ag7Wrua_Ul_oXoc_41EI5uC8IA5fYogem_z21P6LZ1O9o$=20   
      
   https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/key_messages/Late=   
   stKeyMessage_2.png__;!!DZ3fjg!9uwfHTIrXu4nB5pX8IiYt7LWwCT8oOZLhh6Q6IBpUX5Qs=   
   3ag7Wrua_Ul_oXoc_41EI5uC8IA5fYogem_z21PLNrxWmE$=20   
      
      
      
   $$   
      
   =3D =3D =3D   
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