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   Day 3 Convective Outlook   
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK   
   0102 PM CST Thu Jan 29 2026   
      
   Valid 311200Z - 011200Z   
      
   ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...   
      
   ...SUMMARY...   
   Thunderstorm probabilities across the U.S. for Saturday through   
   Saturday night appear less than 10 percent.   
      
   ...Discussion...   
   Models suggest that short waves within split flow across the eastern   
   Pacific into western North America will remain progressive Saturday   
   through Saturday night.  This includes a large and vigorous, but   
   slowly weakening, mid-level trough and associated surface cyclone   
   within the primary belt of westerlies, which are forecast to   
   approach coastal areas from Alaska into the Pacific Northwest.   
      
   While colder mid-level temperatures, potentially supportive of weak   
   boundary-layer destabilization, are forecast to remain offshore, the   
   leading edge of stronger mid-level height falls may begin spreading   
   inland of the Pacific coast during the latter half of the period.   
   It appears an evolving mid-level high in the southern mid-latitudes   
   will be forced inland across southern California into the southern   
   Great Basin, with a trailing cyclonic circulation approaching   
   northern Baja.  However, models indicate that amplified downstream   
   mid-level ridging will be maintained through at least this period   
   across the Canadian Rockies and adjacent Prairies into the northern   
   U.S. Intermountain Region and Rockies.   
      
   Digging short waves to the lee of this ridge will reinforce   
   large-scale troughing east of the Rockies through the U.S. Atlantic   
   Seaboard.  However, the most prominent perturbation within this   
   regime is forecast to pivot across and offshore of the southern   
   Atlantic Seaboard.  As it does, it appears that a broad offshore   
   surface low will undergo notable deepening.   
      
   While considerable spread remains evident in association with   
   developments across and offshore of the Atlantic Seaboard, it   
   appears that this may include at least a couple of areas of   
   significant embedded cyclogenesis by late Saturday night.  One   
   cyclone may continue to deepen along a frontal zone northeast of the   
   Bahamas, across and north/northeast of the Bermuda vicinity, with   
   higher moisture content generally confined to areas along and   
   southeast of this track.   
      
   Along a stronger baroclinic zone closer to the Carolina coast, it   
   appears that a much more rapidly deepening and stronger, but   
   similarly compact, cyclone may develop to the east of the coastal   
   waters.  However, within a cooler/drier environment, models suggest   
   that any destabilization potentially supportive of thunderstorm   
   development may be confined to areas well offshore, near the Gulf   
   Stream.   
      
   ..Kerr.. 01/29/2026   
      
   $$   
      
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