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   ACUS02 KWNS 291702   
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   SPC AC 291700   
      
   Day 2 Convective Outlook   
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK   
   1100 AM CST Thu Jan 29 2026   
      
   Valid 301200Z - 311200Z   
      
   ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...   
      
   ...SUMMARY...   
   Thunderstorm probabilities across the U.S. for Friday through Friday   
   night appear less than 10 percent.   
      
   ...Discussion...   
   There appears little change from prior model runs concerning the   
   general mid/upper flow evolution through this period.  A lower   
   latitude blocking regime may become a bit more prominent   
   near/offshore of southern California and the Baja California   
   Peninsula, with larger-scale ridging being maintained within the   
   primary belt of westerlies across the Pacific coast through Rockies.   
    This is forecast to include short wave ridging building along the   
   British Columbia coast, in the wake of a short wave trough   
   progressing inland across the Canadian and adjacent northern U.S.   
   Rockies, and downstream of a large upper trough and broad/deep   
   cyclone migrating northeastward across the eastern mid-latitude   
   Pacific.   
      
   Downstream, several short wave perturbations, including one vigorous   
   digging impulse (emanating from the Hudson Bay vicinity), are   
   forecast to consolidate into amplifying, positively tilted   
   larger-scale troughing encompassing much of the lower Mississippi   
   Valley and Gulf Basin through southern Atlantic Seaboard by late   
   Friday night.  It still appears that this will be accompanied by   
   only weak surface frontal wave development along a strengthening   
   low-level baroclinic zone across the northeastern Gulf Basin during   
   the day Friday.  There appears to be better consensus among the   
   various models concerning modest cyclogenesis initiating along the   
   same frontal zone offshore of the Carolina coast, and along a   
   remnant surface frontal zone across and northeast of the Bahamas, by   
   late Friday night.   
      
   ...Pacific Northwest...   
   In the wake of a weak inland advancing frontal precipitation band,   
   models indicate that a modest mid-level cold pool will overspread   
   coastal areas during the day Friday.  However, forecast soundings   
   indicate that this will not lead to boundary-layer destabilization   
   supportive of an appreciable risk for convection capable of   
   producing lightning.   
      
   ...South Atlantic Seaboard...   
   Both NAM and Rapid Refresh forecast soundings suggest that some   
   further boundary-layer moistening is possible near southeastern   
   Florida coastal areas and parts of the Keys, where near-surface flow   
   may maintain an easterly component into the day Friday.  It is   
   possible that this may contribute conditionally unstable   
   thermodynamic profiles in the lower- to mid-troposphere, which could   
   become supportive of scattered showers.  However, it still appears   
   probable that a substantive warm/dry layer further aloft will   
   suppress thunderstorm development, before the boundary-layer   
   stabilizes in response to cooling/drying, as near-surface winds back   
   to north/northwesterly.   
      
   Otherwise, through at least this period, it appears that   
   destabilization supportive of thunderstorm development, associated   
   with the developing low offshore of the Carolina coast, will remain   
   focused near the Gulf Stream.   
      
   ..Kerr.. 01/29/2026   
      
   $$   
      
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