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   142   
   AXNT20 KNHC 291033   
   TWDAT   
      
   Tropical Weather Discussion   
   NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL   
   1215 UTC Thu Jan 29 2026   
      
   Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America   
   Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South   
   America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the   
   Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite   
   imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.   
      
   Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1000 UTC.   
      
   ...SPECIAL FEATURES...   
      
   Significant rainfall event: A weakening stationary front extends   
   from E Cuba to the SE coastal waters of Nicaragua. This boundary,   
   along with low level onshore flow, will allow for deep moisture   
   to prevail in the area. Heavy rainfall is expected through Thu,   
   with 2 to 4 inches of rainfall possible primarily over northern   
   Honduras, eastern Guatemala, and coastal Belize, and isolated 4+   
   inches possible along the windward slopes and near the north coast   
   of Honduras where the onshore flow persists. Marine interests in   
   the Gulf of Honduras should also be aware as scattered showers and   
   isolated thunderstorms will prevail in the area through today.   
   Please follow your local weather office for more details.   
      
   Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: Another cold front is expected to   
   move off the Texas coast late tonight. Fresh to strong NW to N   
   winds and building seas will follow the front as it reaches from   
   Panama City, Florida to just N of Veracruz, Mexico by Fri evening.   
   An associated complex area of low pressure will rapidly deepen   
   Fri through Sat as it moves from the SE U.S. into the western   
   Atlantic. This will reinforce the front as it moves southeast of   
   the Gulf basin on Sat, and usher in another blast of arctic air   
   across the Gulf. This will support winds to gale-force near   
   Veracruz early Sat morning through midday Sat, and across the   
   eastern Gulf Sat through Sat evening. Very large seas are expected   
   to build behind this front Fri night through Sun, reaching 15 to   
   18 ft across eastern portions of the basin and into the western   
   Florida coastal waters.   
      
   ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...   
      
   The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of   
   Guinea near 11N14.5W and continues southwestward to 04.5N19W. The   
   ITCZ extends from 04.5N19W to the coast of Brazil near 01S47W.   
   Scattered moderate convection is noted from 01.5S to 05N between   
   19W and 50W. Scattered moderate to strong convection is noted from   
   01.5S to 03N E of 14W.   
      
   GULF OF MEXICO...   
      
   See the Special Features section above for information on a Gale   
   Warning for the SW Gulf, expected to begin in 48 hours.   
      
   1028 mb high pressure has drifted southeastward into the NW Gulf   
   tonight, centered offshore the Louisiana coast near 29N92.5W. A   
   surface trough in the central Gulf to near the Yucatan coast, and   
   a coastal trough in the SW Gulf support some cloudiness in the   
   basin, although any shower activity associated with this   
   convection is very light. The pressure gradient between the high,   
   the central Gulf trough, and a lingering front in the NW Caribbean   
   is producing mostly fresh N winds across the SE Gulf and into the   
   NW Caribbean this morning, where seas are 4 to 7 ft, highest in   
   the Yucatan Channel. Moderate NE winds prevail across the Bay of   
   Campeche to the west of the coastal trough, with seas of 4 to 5   
   ft. Elsewhere, moderate or lighter winds and slight to moderate seas prevail.   
      
   For the forecast, the fresh N winds across the SE Gulf will   
   gradually diminish through morning, as the front in the NW   
   Caribbean drifts southward. High pressure over the southern   
   Plains will shift east today ahead of a low pressure area moving   
   into the lower Mississippi Valley, with a trailing cold front   
   moving off the Texas coast late tonight. Fresh to strong NW to N   
   winds and building seas will follow the front as it reaches from   
   Panama City, Florida to just N of Veracruz, Mexico by Fri evening.   
   The low will rapidly deepen Fri through Sat as it moves into the   
   western Atlantic. This will reinforce the front as it moves   
   southeast of basin Sat, and usher in another blast of arctic air   
   across the Gulf. This will support winds to gale-force near   
   Veracruz early Sat morning, and across the eastern Gulf Sat   
   through Sat evening, with rough to very rough seas across the   
   basin. Looking ahead, winds and seas will diminish from west to   
   east across the Gulf Sun through Mon as high pressure shifts SE   
   into the northern Gulf following the front.   
      
   CARIBBEAN SEA...   
      
   Refer to the section above for details on the significant rainfall   
   even expected over the Honduras/Nicaragua area through Thu.   
      
   A lingering front remains nearly stationary from the east coast of Cuba   
   to the SE coastal waters of Nicaragua, where it has been drifting   
   southward overnight. Stratocumulus clouds and light showers cover   
   much of the NW Caribbean behind the front. The tight pressure   
   gradient between this front and the ridge over the southern   
   United States and Gulf of Mexico supports fresh to strong   
   northerly winds and moderate to rough seas behind the boundary.   
   Seas remain 7 to 10 ft across much of this area. In the south-   
   central Caribbean, recent satellite scatterometer data captured   
   fresh to strong NE winds S of 13.5N to the coast of Colombia.   
   Seas in these waters are 6-8 ft. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker   
   winds and slight to moderate seas are prevalent.   
      
   For the forecast, the aforementioned front has begun to drift   
   southward across the western Caribbean, as high pressure across   
   the NW Gulf of Mexico is starting to shift eastward. Fresh to   
   strong N winds will prevail across NW portions behind the front   
   through this evening, and force it slowly southward, reaching E   
   Cuba to near the Nicaragua-Costa Rica border, where it will stall   
   and begin to weaken this evening through Fri. An unusually strong   
   cold front will move into the NW basin Sat morning and move   
   southeastward, merging with the old lingering front from E Cuba to   
   western Panama Sat evening, from eastern Hispaniola to the NW   
   coast of Colombia Sun evening, then begin to stall from eastern   
   Puerto Rico to NW Colombia Mon evening. Strong to near gale-force   
   N winds are expected behind this front, generating very rough seas.   
      
   ATLANTIC OCEAN...   
      
   An Atlantic front is stationary from 31N48W to 1014 mb low   
   pressure near 25N67W to the east coast of Cuba. Scattered light to   
   moderate showers are evident along the front and E through NE of   
   the low. Moderate to fresh northerly winds and seas of 5-8 ft are   
   occurring behind the boundary and south of 27N, except seas of 9   
   to 10 ft within 120 nm N of the front due to fresh winds. Moderate   
   to fresh SW winds and seas of 8-14 ft in NW swell are found north   
   of 27N and east of the front to 35W. North of the stalled front,   
   a reinforcing front is moving southeast of Bermuda, with fresh to   
   locally strong westerly winds and moderate to rough seas to 9 ft   
   in W-NW swell occurring north of 30N and west of 65W.   
      
   The remainder of the tropical Atlantic is dominated by a 1025 mb   
   high pressure near 27N27W that extends west-southwestward to   
   Hispaniola. Moderate to fresh easterly winds and moderate to   
   locally very rough seas in mixed N and E swell are found south of   
   24N and east of 60W. The strongest winds and highest seas are   
   found in the eastern Atlantic. Large northerly swell spreads   
   across the eastern Atlantic due to a strong low pressure well   
   north of the area. Rough to very rough seas of 12 to 15 ft are   
   found north of 24N and east of 40W. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker   
   winds and moderate seas prevail.   
      
   For the forecast west of 55W, the aforementioned front will   
   meander across this area through tonight. High pressure across   
   the Gulf of Mexico will build eastward into the W Atlantic and   
   freshen winds behind the lingering front today and tonight, and   
   nudge the front southward to near the Atlantic approach to the   
   Windward Passage. An unusually strong cold front will enter the   
   western Atlantic waters Sat morning. Associated complex low   
   pressure is forecast to deepen rapidly across the NW Atlantic Sat   
   through Sun, inducing a very large area of westerly gale-force   
   winds covering the local waters N of 23.5N, and the central   
   Bahamas, Sat through Sun evening, before lifting N of the area Sun   
   night. The front is expected to reach from 31N73W to eastern Cuba   
   Sat evening, from 31N60W to eastern Hispaniola Sun evening, then   
   begin to weaken and stall from 27N55W to eastern Puerto Rico Mon evening.   
      
   $$   
   Stripling   
   --- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux   
    * Origin: Capitol City Online (1:2320/105)   
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