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   FOUS11 KWBC 290746   
   QPFHSD   
      
   Probabilistic Heavy Snow and Icing Discussion   
   NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD   
   246 AM EST Thu Jan 29 2026   
      
   Valid 12Z Thu Jan 29 2026 - 12Z Sun Feb 01 2026   
      
      
   ...Great Lakes...   
   Days 1-2...   
      
   Continued cyclonic flow will continue to favor lake effect snow=20   
   across the Great Lakes for another couple of days. Frigid 850mb=20   
   temperatures will persist with temperatures around -18 to=20   
   -24C, which are below the 10th climatological percentile. WNW flow   
    will turn more northerly (or NNE) as the sharp 500mb shortwave   
    passes through later today. On Friday, northerly flow continues   
    Friday with NNE flow possible into Chicagoland carrying a band   
    into the region overnight into Saturday. Most snow winds downs   
    late Saturday into early Sunday with a surface high overhead.   
    Single band off Lake Ontario will weaken later today but persist   
    through Friday.   
      
   For days 1-2, WPC probabilities for at least 6 inches of snow are   
   >50% over parts of the Michigan U.P. and downwind of Lake Ontario=20   
   near Oswego, where over 10 inches is possible. Over Chicago, WPC=20   
   probabilities for at least 4 inches are not quite 30% but some CAM=20   
   guidance shows a farther westward push out of NW Indiana than=20   
   others.=20   
      
      
   ...Cascades & Olympics...   
   Days 1-2...   
      
   A series of storm systems tracking into the Gulf of Alaska will=20   
   direct rounds of moisture and WAA at western WA through the=20   
   remainder of the week. Strong upslope flow should support locally=20   
   heavy snowfall totals above 5,000ft. Snow levels approach=20   
   6,000-6,500ft by Friday into Saturday in western WA as=20   
   precipitation ends.=20   
      
      
   ...Northern & Central Plains...   
   Days 1-3...   
      
   A weak Pacific shortwave trough tracking NW-SE will ride along a=20   
   nearby 850mb front to support periods of snow from the northern=20   
   High Plains on south in the the central High Plains. Guidance is=20   
   even keying in on an area of 700mb FGEN over the Black Hills on=20   
   south into the Nebraska Sand Hills that could support moderate snow   
   bands Friday morning. Snow is not expected to be overly heavy,=20   
   although the Black Hills through orographic lifting and some=20   
   localized banding may be able to see snowfall amounts surpass 6".=20   
   This is supported in WPC probabilities which show 60-80%=20   
   probabilities for >4" of snow in the Black Hills, and low-to-=20   
   moderate chances (20-50%) in their peaks for >8". Elsewhere, from=20   
   eastern MT on south and east through the Missouri River Valley,=20   
   most snowfall accumulations are likely to range between 1-3". Even=20   
   some localized instances of freezing rain in the northern High=20   
   Plains on late Friday into Saturday given the favorable overrunning   
   from WAA at low-mid levels and sub-freezing surface temps. Some=20   
   hazardous travel is possible, especially where roads temperatures=20   
   are likely below freezing in the wake of the recent extreme cold.   
      
      
   ...Southern Appalachians & Mid-Atlantic...   
   Days 2-3...   
      
   ...Confidence growing for a major winter storm & heavy snowfall=20   
   across the southern Mid-Atlantic...   
      
   Models continue to point to an anomalous and impactful event for=20   
   the southern Appalachians and especially southern Mid-Atlantic=20   
   states this weekend, aided by record cold into the=20   
   Southeast/Florida. Though the various models/ensembles have wavered   
   in their evolution and track of the system, nearly all show a=20   
   powerful ocean storm that will affect the southern Mid-Atlantic as=20   
   cyclogenesis ensues.=20   
      
   As a very deep 500mb low approaches the region, exceptional PVA=20   
   and WAA over the Mid-Atlantic coast will spawn low pressure along=20   
   the strengthening coastal front. Increasing 700mb Q-vector=20   
   convergence near the NC Outer Banks will foster healthy mid-level=20   
   ascent beneath the diffluent left-exit region of a >100kt 500mb jet   
   streak located at the base of the closed 500mb low. As the 700mb=20   
   low tracks towards the Cape Fear region Saturday night, the axis of   
   heaviest snowfall will reside on the 700mb low's northern and=20   
   western flank while surface low pressure explosively deepens into=20   
   the 970s mb by Sunday morning. Snow will likely fall heavily at=20   
   times over eastern NC late Saturday into early Sunday west of the=20   
   surface low as the mid-level upper low eventually catches up. In=20   
   addition, winds will increase which will create blowing and=20   
   drifting snow with possible blizzard conditions. Snow will also=20   
   expand northeastward up along the Mid- Atlantic coast into Long=20   
   Island and southern/southeastern New England but with a lot of=20   
   uncertainty in the expanse of the precipitation shield.   
      
   Through 12Z Sunday, WPC probabilities for at least 8 inches of=20   
   snow are >50% over the southern Appalachians, much of central to=20   
   eastern NC, as well as southern VA and northeastern SC. Within this   
   region, WPC probabilities for at least 12 inches of snow are >40%=20   
   over eastern NC. The footprint of impactful snowfall (>2" to the=20   
   south) extends into northeastern/eastern GA, through much of SC=20   
   (except for the Lowcountry where ptypes/thermals are more=20   
   uncertain), and as far north into the DelMarVa and southeastern NJ.   
      
      
   The Probabilistic Winter Storm Severity Index (WSSI-P) shows >50%=20   
   chances for Major impacts from the NC/SC border to southeastern VA.   
   These elevated WSSI-P Major probabilities indicate an unusual/rare   
   event is increasingly likely.=20   
      
      
   The probability for significant icing is less than 10 percent.   
      
      
   Fracasso/Mullinax   
      
      
   ...Winter Storm Key Messages are in effect. Please see current Key   
   Messages below...   
      
   https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/key_messages/Late=   
   stKeyMessage_1.png__;!!DZ3fjg!4CUOSQKzFnNbuP0ngRlzupRluDzSlOf6XOxWtVIaMamPu=   
   jK5SigKJj5NkEGuj9rswLkOdYSJyPEWhVxQJ46-zwVAXj8$=20   
      
   https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/key_messages/Late=   
   stKeyMessage_2.png__;!!DZ3fjg!4CUOSQKzFnNbuP0ngRlzupRluDzSlOf6XOxWtVIaMamPu=   
   jK5SigKJj5NkEGuj9rswLkOdYSJyPEWhVxQJ46-crIXiPo$=20   
      
      
      
   $$   
      
   =3D =3D =3D   
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