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   546   
   AXNT20 KNHC 281031   
   TWDAT   
      
   Tropical Weather Discussion   
   NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL   
   1215 UTC Wed Jan 28 2026   
      
   Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America   
   Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South   
   America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the   
   Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite   
   imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.   
      
   Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1000 UTC.   
      
   ...SPECIAL FEATURES...   
      
   Significant rainfall event: Moist onshore flow to the north of a   
   weakening frontal boundary, extending from the E coast of Cuba to   
   inland portions along the Honduras-Nicaragua border, will support   
   heavy rainfall through late Thu, with 2 to 4 inches of rainfall   
   possible primarily over northern Honduras, eastern Guatemala, and   
   coastal Belize. In particular, strong moisture convergence behind   
   the frontal boundary, where it intersects the hilly terrain over   
   northwest Honduras, may create the potential for isolated areas   
   of more than 8 inches of rainfall through late Thu, impacting   
   various communities to include Tela, Puerto Cortes, and San Pedro   
   Sula. Marine interests in the Gulf of Honduras should also be   
   aware of the scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms through   
   mid week. Please follow your local weather office for more details.   
      
   ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...   
      
   The monsoon trough reaches the Atlantic through the coast of   
   Guinea near 09N13W and continues southwestward to 03N17.5W. The   
   ITCZ extends from 03N17.5W to the coast of Brazil near 02S45W. A   
   surface trough is analyzed along 47W from 07N to the equator.   
   Scattered moderate convection is observed from south of 07N and   
   between 14W and 50W.   
      
   GULF OF MEXICO...   
      
   1031 mb high pressure centered near the SE Louisiana-Mississippi   
   border dominates the Gulf of Mexico, supporting moderate or   
   weaker winds and slight to moderate seas. However, moderate to   
   locally fresh N to NE winds and rough seas of 7 to 9 ft are still   
   occurring across the western Straits of Florida and in the   
   Yucatan Channel, while seas of 6 to 8 ft are gradually subsiding   
   across the Bay of Campeche. Cold air stratocumulus clouds are   
   noted across much of the Gulf except over the offshore waters from   
   Florida to Louisiana to SE Texas, where dry offshore flow has   
   cleared the skies.   
      
   For the forecast, moderate to locally fresh N to NE winds will   
   prevail across the the southeastern half of the Gulf today before   
   new high pressure moves to the NW Gulf coast this evening and   
   shifts east-southeastward through Thu, which will freshen winds   
   across the SE Gulf. Another strong cold front will reach the Texas   
   coastal waters Thu night. This front is expected to move SE and   
   reach from the Florida Big Bend to Veracruz by Fri night and move   
   SE of the basin Sat afternoon. Strong high pressure behind this   
   front will force strong to near gale-force northerly winds behind   
   the front, with gale-force winds near Veracruz likely to begin Sat   
   morning, then develop across the NE Gulf waters to offshore of   
   central Florida Sat afternoon and evening.   
      
   CARIBBEAN SEA...   
      
   A stationary front extends from the east coast of Cuba to near the   
   border of Honduras and Nicaragua, and inland. The pressure gradient   
   between this front and the ridge over the Gulf of Mexico is   
   resulting in fresh to strong N-NE winds and rough seas to 11 ft over   
   much of the NW Caribbean. A modest pressure gradient also exists   
   in the south-central Caribbean, forcing fresh to strong NE winds   
   to 30 kt and rough seas to 9 ft near and offshore of NW Colombia.   
   Elsewhere, moderate to locally fresh easterly trade winds and   
   moderate seas prevail.   
      
   For the forecast, high pressure across the N Gulf of Mexico   
   will begin to move E this evening through Fri. This will induce   
   fresh to strong N winds across the NW Caribbean behind the front,   
   and force it slowly eastward, reaching from E Cuba to the SE   
   coast of Nicaragua Thu morning, then stall and begin to weaken   
   from E Cuba to near the Nicaragua-Panama border Thu evening   
   through Fri. An unusually strong cold front will move into the NW   
   basin Sat morning and move southeastward, merging with the old   
   lingering front from E Cuba to central Panama Sat evening, then   
   reach from eastern Hispaniola to the NW coast of Colombia by Sun   
   evening. Strong to near gale-force N winds are expected behind this front.   
      
   ATLANTIC OCEAN...   
      
   A cold front extends from 31N55W to the east coast of Cuba. A few   
   showers are evident near this boundary. Moderate to locally fresh   
   winds are behind the front, with 8 to 12 ft seas in NW to N swell   
   east of 75W. Fresh to locally strong SW winds and 8 to 10 ft seas   
   are within about 300 nm ahead of the front north of 29N. The   
   remainder of the basin is dominated by a ridge extending from 1024   
   mb high pressure centered near 26N27W. Moderate to locally fresh   
   easterly winds are noted south of 22N and east of 60W, where seas   
   are 7 to 9 ft in mixed E and N swell.   
      
   In the NE Atlantic, a stationary front extends from the coast of   
   Morocco westward to 29N36W. No significant weather is associated   
   with this feature. Large northerly swell spreads across the   
   eastern Atlantic due to a strong low pressure well north of the   
   area. Seas of 12 to 18 ft are found north of 21N and east of 40W.   
   Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas prevail.   
      
   For the forecast west of 55W, the aforementioned front extending   
   into Cuba will become stationary and weaken as it reaches from   
   near 28N55W to the SE Bahamas and east Cuba this evening, then   
   will meander across this area through Thu. New high pressure   
   across the Gulf of Mexico will build eastward into the W Atlantic   
   and freshen winds behind the lingering front Thu through Thu   
   evening. An unusually strong cold front will enter the western   
   Atlantic waters on Sat. Associated low pressure is forecast to   
   deepen rapidly across the NW Atlantic this weekend, inducing a   
   large area of westerly gale-force winds across the local waters N   
   of 24N Sat evening through Sun evening. The front is expected to   
   reach from 31N74W to eastern Cuba Sat evening, and from 31N62W to   
   eastern Hispaniola Sun evening.   
      
   $$   
   Stripling   
   --- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux   
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