TZUTC: -0500   
   MSGID: 168973.weather@1:2320/105 2de09cc5   
   PID: Synchronet 3.21a-Linux master/123f2d28a Jul 12 2025 GCC 12.2.0   
   TID: SBBSecho 3.28-Linux master/123f2d28a Jul 12 2025 GCC 12.2.0   
   BBSID: CAPCITY2   
   CHRS: ASCII 1   
   FORMAT: flowed   
   562    
   AXNT20 KNHC 271041   
   TWDAT    
      
   Tropical Weather Discussion   
   NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL   
   1215 UTC Tue Jan 27 2026   
      
   Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America   
   Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South   
   America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the   
   Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite   
   imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.   
      
   Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1000 UTC.   
      
   ...SPECIAL FEATURES...   
      
   Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: A strong cold front has moved   
   southeast of the basin and into the NW Caribbean overnight, and    
   extends from the NW Bahamas southwestward across central Cuba and    
   into south central Belize. 1039 mb high pressure across SW   
   Louisiana and SE Texas extends a ridge south and southeastward   
   behind the front, forcing strong northerly winds across the    
   entire basin, except across NW portions, where moderate N to NE   
   winds prevail. NW gales near Veracruz has diminished slightly   
   overnight, to around 35 kt, where seas are 16-18 ft, as confirmed   
   by overnight satellite altimeter data. Very rough seas of 12 ft   
   and higher prevail elsewhere S of 20N across most of the Bay of   
   Campeche, and near the NE coast of the Yucatan Peninsula and   
   through the Yucatan Channel. Gales off of Veracruz are expected    
   to diminish to 25-30 kt by sunrise. Marine conditions will improve   
   from NW to SE across the basin today through Wed as the front    
   moves farther southeastward into the NW Caribbean and high    
   pressure settles across the northern Gulf.    
      
   Atlantic Gale Warning: A strong W Atlantic cold front extends   
   through 31N69W southwestward across the NW Bahamas and through    
   central Cuba. Behind the front, strong high pressure across the NW   
   Gulf of Mexico extends east and southeastward behind the front,   
   and is forcing strong NW to N winds and rough seas across the   
   Atlantic waters. Northerly gales have been occurring overnight near   
   and offshore NE Florida to the Cape Canaveral area over and east   
   of the Gulfstream, and are expected to diminish below gale-force    
   by sunrise. Seas in this area area are 10-13 ft in N swell moving   
   against the Gulfstream current. The front will move from near    
   31N56W to the SE Bahamas and eastern Cuba this evening, then    
   become stationary and weaken as it reaches from near 29N55W to the   
   SE Bahamas and east Cuba Wed evening. As this occurs, winds will    
   gradually diminish from NW to SE today and tonight. Moderate to    
   large NW swell generated behind the front will gradually move SE    
   of this area tonight through Wed.   
      
   Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National    
   Hurricane Center at website: https://nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml   
     for more details.   
      
   Significant rainfall event: A cold front is entering the NW    
   Caribbean and forecast to stall from eastern Cuba to NE Honduras    
   by late today into Wed. As the front becomes nearly stationary    
   over the NW Caribbean, the northerly winds behind it will    
   transport abundant tropical moisture into the Gulf of Honduras and   
   northern Honduras, where the onshore flow will favor the    
   development of showers and thunderstorms. Deep tropical moisture    
   will remain in place across southern Mexico and northern Central    
   America supporting more shower and thunderstorm activity with   
   rainfall amounts of 2 to 4 inches, and localized amounts of 4 to    
   6 inches due to orographic effects. The heaviest rainfall is    
   expected in southern Mexico late tonight into Tue, and in northern   
   Guatemala and Belize Tue into early Wed, and well as in northern Honduras.   
      
   Please follow your local weather office for more details.   
      
   ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...   
      
   The monsoon trough reaches the Atlantic through the coast of   
   Guinea near 10N14W and continues southwestward to 03N22W. The    
   ITCZ extends from 03N22W to 00N34W and to the coast of Brazil near    
   03S40W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is observed   
   south of 06N and between 08W and 51W.   
      
   GULF OF MEXICO...   
      
   Please read the Special Features section for details on the Gale   
   Warning in effect for the SW Gulf.   
      
   A strong cold front extends has moved southeast of the basin and    
   into the NW Caribbean overnight, and extends from the NW Bahamas    
   southwestward across central Cuba and into south central Belize.    
   1039 mb high pressure across SW Louisiana and SE Texas extends a    
   ridge south and southeastward behind the front, forcing strong    
   northerly winds across the entire basin, except across NW    
   portions, where moderate N to NE winds prevail. Seas of 8 ft and   
   greater are generally S of a line from Cedar Key, Florida to   
   28N88W to near Tampico, Mexico. Recent buoy observations show seas   
   of 10-12 offshore of the Tampa bay area. Peak seas across   
   the basin of 15-18 ft are over the SW Gulf across and downwind of   
   gales off of Veracruz.   
      
   For the forecast, marine conditions will improve from NW to SE    
   today through Wed as the front moves farther southeastward into    
   the NW Caribbean and high pressure settles across the northern    
   Gulf. The high will shift southeastward on Thu as low pressure    
   develops in the north- central Gulf along the next cold front.    
   This front is expected to reach from the Florida Panhandle to    
   Veracruz by Fri evening and move SE of the basin Sat. Another    
   round of strong northerly winds will follow this front, with gale-   
   force winds near Veracruz likely to begin Sat morning.    
      
   CARIBBEAN SEA...    
      
   A cold front has moved into the NW Caribbean overnight, extending   
   from central Cuba to south central Belize. A few clusters of   
   moderate showers are along the front. Strong northerly winds to 30   
   kt and rough seas are noted behind the front, as depicted by   
   overnight satellite scatterometer data. Seas of 10-12 ft are   
   currently across the Yucatan Channel. Meanwhile, the remainder of   
   the basin is under the influence of a broad subtropical ridge    
   over the central Atlantic. Fresh to strong easterly winds and    
   rough seas to 9 ft are found off Colombia. Moderate to fresh    
   easterly winds and moderate seas are noted in the north- central    
   and eastern Caribbean. Elsewhere, light to gentle winds and slight   
   seas prevail.   
      
   For the forecast, high pressure over the central Atlantic will   
   slide E-SE and weaken through Tue night and maintain a ridge N of   
   the Caribbean basin. This pattern will support fresh trades over    
   the eastern and central Caribbean as well as the Tropical N    
   Atlantic waters through early Wed, while fresh winds offshore of    
   Colombia pulse to strong at night through Thu. Large E swell over    
   the Tropical N Atlantic will slowly subside through Wed afternoon.   
   The cold front over the NW basin will move SE today and begin to    
   stall and weaken from eastern Cuba to NE Honduras this evening    
   through Wed. Strong northerly winds will follow the front before    
   briefly diminishing to mostly fresh Wed morning, then increase to    
   fresh to strong Wed afternoon through Thu as stronger high    
   pressure builds southward across the N Gulf of Mexico. Mainly   
   moderate N winds and seas will prevail over the NW Caribbean Thu    
   night through Fri night. Looking ahead, a new strong cold front    
   will move into the NW basin Sat.   
      
   ATLANTIC OCEAN...   
      
   Please read the Special Features section about the Gale Warning   
   off NE Florida.   
      
   A strong cold front extends from 31N69W across the NW Bahamas and   
   into central Cuba. Scattered showers are noted along this    
   boundary. Fresh to near gale-force N winds and rough seas prevail    
   behind this boundary. Fresh to strong SW winds and rough seas are    
   found ahead of the front to 60W and north of 28N. The rest of the   
   tropical Atlantic is dominated by a broad subtropical ridge that    
   extends from 1025 mb high pressure near 30N40W to the central    
   Bahamas. Moderate to fresh easterly trade winds and moderate to    
   rough seas in a mix of E and N swell are found south of 25N and    
   east of 65W to 30W. A cold front is found SE of the central   
   Atlantic high, from 31N20W to 28N35W, with moderate to fresh winds   
   on both sides of the front.    
      
   In the far NE Atlantic, a strong low pressure off Ireland is    
   producing fresh to strong W winds and rough seas to the area north   
   of the Canary Islands and east of 25W. Northerly swell associated   
   with this feature is progressing southward, producing seas of    
   8-16 ft north of 25N and east of 55W. Elsewhere, moderate or    
   weaker winds and moderate seas prevail.    
      
   For the forecast west of 55W, the cold front will reach from near   
   31N56W to the SE Bahamas and eastern Cuba this evening, then    
   become stationary and weaken as it reaches from near 29N55W to the   
   SE Bahamas and east Cuba Wed evening. The frontal boundary will    
   meander across this area through Thu, when new high pressure    
   across the Gulf of Mexico will build eastward into the W Atlantic   
   and freshen winds behind the lingering front through Thu evening.   
   Looking ahead, another strong cold front will enter the western    
   waters on Sat. Associated low pressure is forecast to deepen    
   rapidly across the NW Atlantic Sat through Sun.   
      
   $$   
   Stripling   
   --- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux   
    * Origin: Capitol City Online (1:2320/105)   
   SEEN-BY: 1/19 100 16/0 19/10 37 104/119 105/81 106/201 114/10 120/302   
   SEEN-BY: 123/130 128/187 129/14 142/104 153/757 7715 154/10 30 50   
   SEEN-BY: 154/110 700 203/0 218/700 840 220/10 20 90 221/1 6 360 226/18   
   SEEN-BY: 226/20 30 44 50 227/114 229/110 134 206 300 307 317 400 426   
   SEEN-BY: 229/428 470 664 700 705 240/5832 266/512 280/5003 291/111   
   SEEN-BY: 301/1 320/119 219 319 2119 322/757 762 326/101 335/364 341/66   
   SEEN-BY: 342/200 396/45 423/81 460/58 633/280 712/848 902/26 2320/0   
   SEEN-BY: 2320/105 304 3634/12 5020/400 5075/35   
   PATH: 2320/105 154/10 221/6 1 320/219 229/426