TZUTC: 0000   
   MSGID: 168965.weather@1:2320/105 2de03b5f   
   PID: Synchronet 3.21a-Linux master/123f2d28a Jul 12 2025 GCC 12.2.0   
   TID: SBBSecho 3.28-Linux master/123f2d28a Jul 12 2025 GCC 12.2.0   
   BBSID: CAPCITY2   
   CHRS: ASCII 1   
   FORMAT: flowed   
   FOUS30 KWBC 270803   
   QPFERD   
      
   Excessive Rainfall Discussion   
   NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD   
   303 AM EST Tue Jan 27 2026   
      
   Day 1   
   Valid 12Z Tue Jan 27 2026 - 12Z Wed Jan 28 2026   
      
   The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is less   
   than 5 percent.   
      
   Wegman   
      
   Day 2   
   Valid 12Z Wed Jan 28 2026 - 12Z Thu Jan 29 2026   
      
   The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is less   
   than 5 percent.   
      
   A cold front associated with a low that will track into the Gulf of   
   Alaska will move into the coast of the Pacific Northwest on   
   Wednesday. By the time that front moves into the coast, however, it   
   will be well detached from its parent low in the Gulf of Alaska,   
   which will be shearing apart in the mountains. The flow out of the   
   subtropics ahead of the front will provide some additional moisture   
   to be wrung out in the mountains of the Olympic Peninsula, however,   
   moisture flux will only ever be modest at best, with IVT values   
   topping out around 500 kg/ms.=20   
      
   Model guidance suggests total rainfall into Western Washington has   
   decreased over the last 24 hours, with maximum rainfall amounts in   
   the Olympic Mountains around 3-4 inches, and lower amounts towards   
   the coast, around 1-2 inches. This modest rainfall (for this area)   
   when added to already dry soils and below average river flows,   
   should preclude any but very isolated flooding. In coordination   
   with SEW/Seattle, WA forecast office, the inherited Marginal Risk   
   was downgraded with this update.   
      
   Wegman   
      
   Day 3   
   Valid 12Z Thu Jan 29 2026 - 12Z Fri Jan 30 2026   
      
   The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is less   
   than 5 percent.   
      
   The inherited Marginal Risk across Western Washington was   
   downgraded to no risk areas with this update. A second wave   
   traveling northeast along the same front that will bring rainfall   
   to western Washington from Day 2 will track in similar fashion   
   roughly parallel to the coast and into British Columbia. This will   
   leave western Washington with a weaker, shearing apart area of   
   lighter rain. Rainfall forecast amounts have decreased with this=20   
   update. Despite the rivers and streams becoming more elevated,   
   likely back to normal levels after Wednesday's rains, Thursday's   
   expected rainfall will be less, and remains unlikely to result in   
   flash flooding. With the downgrade of the Day 2 Marginal and in=20   
   coordination with SEW/Seattle, WA forecast office, the Day 3=20   
   Marginal was also downgraded with this update.   
      
   Wegman   
      
      
   Day 1 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go=   
   v/qpf/94epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!5i5FNHoP-wc3eWvvvRtNoMdKqtuGWGtpKifmw9K9mCr8=   
   1s8oMTISMPEo1iAB16DKCSfnox2Zge1bJbYVMBjvmQx_PVM$=20   
   Day 2 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go=   
   v/qpf/98epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!5i5FNHoP-wc3eWvvvRtNoMdKqtuGWGtpKifmw9K9mCr8=   
   1s8oMTISMPEo1iAB16DKCSfnox2Zge1bJbYVMBjvuRjU-kM$=20   
   Day 3 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go=   
   v/qpf/99epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!5i5FNHoP-wc3eWvvvRtNoMdKqtuGWGtpKifmw9K9mCr8=   
   1s8oMTISMPEo1iAB16DKCSfnox2Zge1bJbYVMBjveBx0QJI$=20   
      
   =3D =3D =3D   
   To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to   
   https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link.  Otherwise email   
   Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.   
      
   --- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux   
    * Origin: Capitol City Online (1:2320/105)   
   SEEN-BY: 19/10 104/119 105/81 106/201 114/10 120/302 128/187 129/14   
   SEEN-BY: 153/757 7715 154/10 30 50 110 700 218/700 840 220/10 20 70   
   SEEN-BY: 220/90 221/1 6 360 226/17 18 20 30 44 50 227/114 229/110   
   SEEN-BY: 229/134 206 300 307 317 400 426 428 470 664 700 705 266/512   
   SEEN-BY: 267/800 291/111 301/1 320/219 322/757 335/364 341/66 342/200   
   SEEN-BY: 396/45 460/58 633/280 712/848 770/1 100 340 350 772/210 220   
   SEEN-BY: 772/230 902/26 2320/0 105 304 3634/12 5020/400 5075/35   
   PATH: 2320/105 154/10 221/6 218/840 770/1 633/280 229/426