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   FOUS11 KWBC 270733   
   QPFHSD   
      
   Probabilistic Heavy Snow and Icing Discussion   
   NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD   
   233 AM EST Tue Jan 27 2026   
      
   Valid 12Z Tue Jan 27 2026 - 12Z Fri Jan 30 2026   
      
      
   ...Great Lakes...   
   Days 1-3...   
      
   Broad cyclonic flow and trough passages persist across the Great   
   Lakes as low pressure over Hudson Bay shifts south over Ontario   
   through Thursday. These will produce rounds of lake effect snow=20   
   (LES) beginning today behind a notable upper trough passage. 850mb   
   temperatures will remain quite cold during this period, with   
   temperatures around -18 to -24C, and below the 10th climatological   
   percentile. According to GLERL, Lake Erie is essentially ice=20   
   covered, so available moisture will be limited there while Lakes=20   
   Superior and Ontario remain largely open. Westerly flow will   
   continue across the Lower Great Lakes through Thursday night, with   
   northerly flow more likely on Day 3 across the Upper Great Lakes,   
   This allows Days 1-3 PWPF for >8" over 50% in the Tug Hill and for   
   the eastern U.P. of Michigan. The heaviest snowfall is no doubt   
   most likely downwind of Lake Ontario and the Tug Hill, where 50-60%   
   probabilities for >18" reach the shoreline of Oswego county.   
      
      
   ...Cascades...   
   Days 2/3...   
      
   The next trough axis to near the Pacific Northwest shunts the=20   
   powerful western ridge eastward Tuesday night, with precip over=20   
   the WA Cascades then through Thursday. Snow levels rise from 4000=20   
   to 5000ft over the WA Cascades Wednesday through Thursday. PWPF for   
   >6" is 40-70% above the snow level (above pass level) by Thursday.   
      
      
   The probability for significant icing is less than 10 percent.   
      
      
      
   Snell   
      
      
      
      
      
   ...Extreme Cold Key Messages are in effect. Please see current Key   
   Messages below...   
      
   https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/key_messages/Late=   
   stKeyMessage_1.png__;!!DZ3fjg!8NunqgJMY9ONsq94cDZxgfNTy_qFZpb-PYrxM2rTB5EIS=   
   h2M4WxUege40SO-B-z28uH25Ynjwag2vrjv-7YR7oHbKF4$=20   
      
      
      
   $$   
      
   =3D =3D =3D   
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