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   TID: SBBSecho 3.28-Linux master/123f2d28a Jul 12 2025 GCC 12.2.0   
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   FOUS30 KWBC 270048   
   QPFERD   
      
   Excessive Rainfall Discussion   
   NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD   
   748 PM EST Mon Jan 26 2026   
      
   Day 1   
   Valid 01Z Tue Jan 27 2026 - 12Z Tue Jan 27 2026   
      
   The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is less   
   than 5 percent.   
      
   Chenard   
      
      
   Day 2   
   Valid 12Z Tue Jan 27 2026 - 12Z Wed Jan 28 2026   
      
   The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is less   
   than 5 percent.   
      
   Cook/Orrison   
      
      
   Day 3   
   Valid 12Z Wed Jan 28 2026 - 12Z Thu Jan 29 2026   
      
   ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ACROSS WESTERN   
   WASHINGTON STATE...   
      
   2030Z Update...   
      
   The 12Z model guidance supports a relatively modest atmospheric   
   river impacting western WA by later Wednesday and going through   
   early Thursday. IVT magnitudes of 300 to 500 kg/m/s are progged to   
   impact especially western WA as strengthening southwest low to   
   mid-level flow takes place. Heavy rainfall is most likely over the   
   orographically favored southwest-facing slopes of the Olympic   
   Peninsula, and a few inches of rain is supported by a multi-model   
   consensus of guidance. Many of the area streams and creeks are   
   currently at or below normal for streamflows, so any runoff   
   concerns at least for this period should be highly isolated. The   
   Marginal Risk of excessive rainfall will be maintained for the time   
   being.   
      
   Orrison   
      
   Previous discussion...   
      
   Models are generally consistent in a substantial increase in   
   southwesterly low-level flow across western Washington State during   
   the D3/Wed forecast period as a broad upper trough becomes   
   established over the northeastern Pacific. 35-50kt 850mb flow will   
   become oriented favorably against local terrain for appreciable   
   orographic ascent for occasional moderate to heavy rainfall. Areas   
   of 2-5 inch rainfall totals are expected mainly across the Olympic   
   Peninsula (highest in favorable terrain areas). These rainfall   
   totals should be sufficient for at least isolated/minor flooding in   
   typically favored areas.   
      
   Cook   
      
      
   Day 1 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go=   
   v/qpf/94epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!_ESfkPwpyVSx1Ayh6MWDM-bJV207VdMOJelFp1MwqD0J=   
   IJbavtJnbICE9a40z6t6JUImxj9xEiA1dqvYmIDxeMMwpHE$=20   
   Day 2 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go=   
   v/qpf/98epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!_ESfkPwpyVSx1Ayh6MWDM-bJV207VdMOJelFp1MwqD0J=   
   IJbavtJnbICE9a40z6t6JUImxj9xEiA1dqvYmIDxWh3xdis$=20   
   Day 3 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go=   
   v/qpf/99epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!_ESfkPwpyVSx1Ayh6MWDM-bJV207VdMOJelFp1MwqD0J=   
   IJbavtJnbICE9a40z6t6JUImxj9xEiA1dqvYmIDxMuT7KOw$=20   
      
   =3D =3D =3D   
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