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   QPFERD   
      
   Excessive Rainfall Discussion   
   NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD   
   241 PM EST Mon Jan 26 2026   
      
   Day 1   
   Valid 16Z Mon Jan 26 2026 - 12Z Tue Jan 27 2026   
      
   The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is less   
   than 5 percent.   
      
   Cook/Orrison   
      
      
   Day 2   
   Valid 12Z Tue Jan 27 2026 - 12Z Wed Jan 28 2026   
      
   The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is less   
   than 5 percent.   
      
   Cook/Orrison   
      
      
   Day 3   
   Valid 12Z Wed Jan 28 2026 - 12Z Thu Jan 29 2026   
      
   ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ACROSS WESTERN   
   WASHINGTON STATE...   
      
   2030Z Update...   
      
   The 12Z model guidance supports a relatively modest atmospheric   
   river impacting western WA by later Wednesday and going through   
   early Thursday. IVT magnitudes of 300 to 500 kg/m/s are progged to   
   impact especially western WA as strengthening southwest low to   
   mid-level flow takes place. Heavy rainfall is most likely over the   
   orographically favored southwest-facing slopes of the Olympic   
   Peninsula, and a few inches of rain is supported by a multi-model   
   consensus of guidance. Many of the area streams and creeks are   
   currently at or below normal for streamflows, so any runoff=20   
   concerns at least for this period should be highly isolated. The=20   
   Marginal Risk of excessive rainfall will be maintained for the time   
   being.   
      
   Orrison   
      
   Previous discussion...   
      
   Models are generally consistent in a substantial increase in   
   southwesterly low-level flow across western Washington State during   
   the D3/Wed forecast period as a broad upper trough becomes   
   established over the northeastern Pacific. 35-50kt 850mb flow will   
   become oriented favorably against local terrain for appreciable   
   orographic ascent for occasional moderate to heavy rainfall. Areas   
   of 2-5 inch rainfall totals are expected mainly across the Olympic   
   Peninsula (highest in favorable terrain areas). These rainfall   
   totals should be sufficient for at least isolated/minor flooding in   
   typically favored areas.   
      
   Cook   
      
      
   Day 1 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go=   
   v/qpf/94epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!4mjYuv7kprFz3qaNnfyGgGAUcbZ-M_NFAsmJckG-TefR=   
   XqL9CP2p1ZkPR_p0P85SgecocRcAJ5JQSSCZmxdS5ZlfLR8$=20   
   Day 2 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go=   
   v/qpf/98epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!4mjYuv7kprFz3qaNnfyGgGAUcbZ-M_NFAsmJckG-TefR=   
   XqL9CP2p1ZkPR_p0P85SgecocRcAJ5JQSSCZmxdSmXP33JQ$=20   
   Day 3 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go=   
   v/qpf/99epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!4mjYuv7kprFz3qaNnfyGgGAUcbZ-M_NFAsmJckG-TefR=   
   XqL9CP2p1ZkPR_p0P85SgecocRcAJ5JQSSCZmxdSuNX0Waw$=20   
      
   =3D =3D =3D   
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