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   604    
   AXNT20 KNHC 261045   
   TWDAT    
      
   Tropical Weather Discussion   
   NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL   
   1215 UTC Mon Jan 26 2026   
      
   Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America   
   Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South   
   America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the   
   Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite   
   imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.   
      
   Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1000 UTC.   
      
   ...SPECIAL FEATURES...   
      
   Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: A strong cold front continues to   
   move E-SE across the Gulf this morning, and extends from the   
   Florida Big Bend southwestward to 20N94W then southward and    
   inland across Mexico E of Coatzacoalcos. Strong to near gale-    
   force N winds and rough to very rough seas are found behind the    
   front. Recent satellite scatterometer data indicated that    
   northerly gales were occurring offshore Tampico, and are expected   
   to begin across the waters near Veracruz by sunrise. These gale    
   conditions are forecast to continue offshore Tampico through this    
   morning and offshore Veracruz through late Mon night. The cold    
   front will sweep across the rest of the basin tonight through Mon    
   evening. Seas are expected to quickly build across the Gulf region   
   through Mon reaching 16 or 17 ft across SW portions. Marine    
   conditions will improve from NW to SE Tue through Wed as the    
   front moves southeastward into the NW Caribbean and high pressure    
   settles across the northern Gulf. Mariners are advised to keep up    
   with the latest forecasts.   
      
   Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National    
   Hurricane Center at website:  https://nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml   
     for more details.   
      
   ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...   
      
   The monsoon trough reaches the Atlantic through the coast of   
   Guinea near 10N14W and continues southwestward to 03.5N19W. The    
   ITCZ extends from 03.5N19W to 04N43W and to 00.5N50W. Scattered    
   moderate isolated strong convection is observed south of 08N   
   between 13W and 52W.   
      
   GULF OF MEXICO...   
      
   Please read the Special Features section for details on the Gale   
   Warning in effect for the western and SW Gulf.   
      
   A cold front extends from the Florida Big Bend southwestward to    
   20N94W then southward and inland across Mexico E of Coatzacoalcos.   
   Modified arctic air is spilling across the entire basin behind the   
   front to produce a blanket of cold air stratus behind the front.   
   Area radars show fine lines of moderate showers along and ahead of   
   the front across the eastern Gulf and into Florida, with a few   
   isolated strong showers. Gulf buoys show seas have reached 10 ft   
   across NW and SW central portions, outside of the strongest winds.   
   Winds offshore of Tampico are likely 12-13 ft already. Ahead of    
   the front, moderate to locally fresh S to SW winds and moderate    
   seas to 6 ft prevail.   
      
   For the forecast, the cold front will sweep across the rest of    
   the basin through Mon evening with very rough seas expected to    
   quickly build across the basin today and tonight. Marine    
   conditions will improve from NW to SE Tue through Wed as the front   
   moves southeastward into the NW Caribbean and high pressure    
   settles across the northern Gulf. The high will shift southeastward   
   Thu as low pressure develops in the far western Gulf along the    
   next cold frontal boundary. This front is expected to reach from    
   the Florida Panhandle to Veracruz by Fri evening.    
      
   CARIBBEAN SEA...   
      
   Generally stable conditions prevail across the Caribbean waters.   
   Satellite imagery shows scattered shallow light showers extending   
   across the basin from south of Jamaica east and southeastward to   
   the Lesser Antilles. A broad high pressure ridge north of the    
   area supports fresh to strong easterly winds and rough seas to   
   near 8 ft off northern Colombia. Moderate to fresh easterly    
   breezes and moderate seas are prevalent in the north- central and    
   eastern Caribbean and Gulf of Honduras. Elsewhere, moderate or    
   lighter winds and slight to moderate seas are evident.   
      
   For the forecast, high pressure NE of Bermuda will slide SE and    
   weaken through Tue and maintain a ridge N of the Caribbean basin,    
   supporting mostly fresh trades over the eastern and central    
   Caribbean as well as the Tropical N Atlantic waters, while fresh    
   winds offshore of Colombia pulse to strong at night. Large E swell   
   over the Tropical N Atlantic will slowly subside into early next    
   week, with seas lingering near 8 ft through early Wed. A cold    
   front will enter the NW Caribbean late today and begin to stall    
   from eastern Cuba to NE Honduras by late Tue into Wed. Strong    
   northerly winds will follow the front before briefly diminishing    
   to mostly fresh on Wed, and increasing to fresh to strong Wed    
   night and Thu as stronger high pressure builds southward across    
   the N Gulf of Mexico.   
      
   ATLANTIC OCEAN...   
      
   A 1027 mb high is centered NE of Bermuda near 35N54W and extends a   
   broad ridge southwestward across the NW Bahamas, south Florida    
   and through the Straits of Florida. A 1011 mb low center of    
   located over central Georgia, with a strong cold front then    
   trailing southwestward across the Gulf of Mexico. A tight   
   pressure gradient between the ridge and the low center supports    
   fresh to strong southerly winds and rough seas to 8 ft north of    
   28N and west of 75W. Farther east, a cold front enters the    
   tropical Atlantic near 31N39W and continues southwestward to    
   28N50W and then as a stationary front to 31N63W. Moderate to    
   locally fresh E winds and rough seas 8 to 12 ft in N swell are    
   found north of the boundary. The remainder of the basin is under    
   the influence of a broad subtropical ridge that sustains moderate    
   to fresh easterly winds and moderate to rough seas 7 to 10 ft    
   south of 25N and between the Bahamas and Africa. Elsewhere,    
   moderate or weaker winds and moderate to locally rough seas    
   prevail. A band of multilayer clouds associated with very strong    
   winds aloft persist across the tropical Atlantic, extending from    
   NE South America all the way to W Africa.   
      
   For the forecast west of 55W, fresh to strong SW winds over the    
   NW forecast waters will continue through mid morning in advance of   
   a strong cold front that is expected to move offshore northeast    
   Florida this morning, accompanied by scattered showers and    
   thunderstorms. The front will reach from near 31N73W to the NW    
   Bahamas and S Florida Mon evening, from near 31N57W to the Turks    
   and Caicos Islands and eastern Cuba Tue evening, then begin to    
   become stationary and weaken as it reaches from near 28N55W to the   
   SE Bahamas and to eastern Cuba Wed evening. Fresh to strong NW to   
   N winds and rough seas are expected W of the front this afternoon   
   through Tue afternoon. The frontal boundary will begin to    
   dissipate on Thu as another cold front moves out across the    
   western forecast waters, reaching from near 29N55W to the central    
   Bahamas Fri morning, before stalling N of 24N Fri night.   
      
   $$   
   Stripling   
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