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   QPFERD   
      
   Excessive Rainfall Discussion   
   NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD   
   220 PM EST Sun Jan 25 2026   
      
   Day 1   
   Valid 16Z Sun Jan 25 2026 - 12Z Mon Jan 26 2026   
      
   ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ACROSS PORTIONS   
   OF THE DEEP SOUTH AND ADJACENT SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS...   
      
   16z update:   
   Meteorological reasoning remains solid given 40-50kts of low level   
   flow and ample, though shallow moisture with PW values around   
   1.75" near the coast and 1.5" as far north as the triple point in   
   central AL. Hourly rates of 1.25-1.75" remain possible, though   
   duration is likely going to be the limiting factor. Convective   
   steering may support some southwest to northeast short-term   
   training especially if a pre-frontal convective development could   
   arise, though observational trends are not suggestive of that at   
   this time, with ongoing shallow cells still along the cold front or   
   even anafrontal (becoming freezing rain).   
      
   Still 12z Hi-Res CAMs and HREF probabilities still hint at   
   localized streak of 2-2.5" in 3-6hrs, placing it around the FFG   
   values especially across central AL into the southern Appalachians.   
   Winter mix from overnight period, likely will further complicate   
   hydrological situation with increased run-off as well especially in   
   the vicinity of the TN boarder with GA/NC. As such, only small   
   adjustments to the edges of the Marginal Risk were made.   
      
   Overall, the strongest cells (capable of .5 to .75"/15 minutes per   
   HRRR) are most likely to be remain along the Coastal Plains of S   
   AL, S GA and the FL Panhandle where FFG values are much higher and   
   warmer ground conditions are likely to be receptive of the rates.   
   Trends will be watched and there will remain a non- zero risk of   
   flooding but still remains below 5% coverage necessary to add the   
   Marginal Risk for those locations.   
      
   Gallina   
      
      
   Day 2   
   Valid 12Z Mon Jan 26 2026 - 12Z Tue Jan 27 2026   
      
   The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is less   
   than 5 percent.   
      
   Gallina   
      
      
   Day 3   
   Valid 12Z Tue Jan 27 2026 - 12Z Wed Jan 28 2026   
      
   The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is less   
   than 5 percent.   
      
   Gallina   
      
      
   Day 1 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go=   
   v/qpf/94epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!7vXUiTgPznJ_ggRXgjGTFycoflMLeOOlAeDxisOVkYpa=   
   hllSxghUiN6aFHTN0NZKaKfVjPJ01uRUy98yMPHiSg2xG8E$=20   
   Day 2 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go=   
   v/qpf/98epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!7vXUiTgPznJ_ggRXgjGTFycoflMLeOOlAeDxisOVkYpa=   
   hllSxghUiN6aFHTN0NZKaKfVjPJ01uRUy98yMPHiLV1VL90$=20   
   Day 3 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go=   
   v/qpf/99epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!7vXUiTgPznJ_ggRXgjGTFycoflMLeOOlAeDxisOVkYpa=   
   hllSxghUiN6aFHTN0NZKaKfVjPJ01uRUy98yMPHifG_xsAo$=20   
      
   =3D =3D =3D   
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