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   FOUS11 KWBC 251820   
   QPFHSD   
      
   Probabilistic Heavy Snow and Icing Discussion   
   NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD   
   120 PM EST Sun Jan 25 2026   
      
   Valid 00Z Mon Jan 26 2026 - 00Z Thu Jan 29 2026   
      
      
   ...Mid-Atlantic and Northeast...   
   Days 1-2...   
      
   The expansive winter storm will wind down across the Central   
   Plains and Mid-South today, but significant impacts will persist   
   across the Ohio Valley, Mid-Atlantic, and Northeast tonight and   
   Monday.   
      
   This morning, the GOES-E water vapor imagery tells the take, with   
   an impressive plume of moisture stretching from Texas into southern   
   Canada, with a clear baroclinic leaf expanding over the TN/OH   
   Valleys. The upper low is spinning over TX and this will lift   
   northward into the Ohio Valley today, while secondary low pressure   
   development occurs off the Mid-Atlantic coast this afternoon. This   
   secondary low pressure will become dominant and strengthen as it   
   tracks south of New England, with the most significant winter   
   weather and impacts shifting into New England tonight and Monday.   
   The trailing upper trough will move across the Great Lakes Monday,   
   helping to drive an inverted trough back across New England even as   
   the primary low departs, and light although the heaviest snow   
   should end Monday night, light snow may persist in this area into   
   Tuesday morning.=20   
      
   This evolution will result in impressive additional snow amounts   
   (after 00Z this evening) from the higher terrain of WV/PA northeast   
   through Upstate NY and all of New England. The heaviest snowfall is   
   expected across Upstate NY and New England where WPC probabilities   
   indicate a high risk (>90%) for at least 8 inches, with 12-18"   
   possible (30-50% chance) for the Greens, Whites, and coastal SW=20   
   Maine/far northern MA thanks to a coastal front evolution. Snowfall   
   rates will be extreme at times, potentially reaching 2-3"/hr as=20   
   progged by the WPC prototype snowband tool due to strong WAA=20   
   overlapping fgen which may result in CSI/CI (and possible=20   
   thundersnow). The intense WAA in the 850-700mb will drive a warm=20   
   nose above 0C as far north as coastal CT/RI/Cape Cod, so some=20   
   transition to sleet is likely, but otherwise a very cold airmass=20   
   will allow SLRs to be above climo (but dropping during the event)=20   
   which will help that efficient snow growth. The DGZ is quite=20   
   elevated, so the best ascent will not cross-hatch into the snow=20   
   growth region in most areas, but nevertheless, robust moisture on=20   
   IVT exceeding the 90th percentile will wring out to this heavy=20   
   snow, and it is possible some 48-hr total snowfall will reach more=20   
   than 2 feet in parts of New England, with widespread 6-12" covering   
   most of the Mid-Atlantic, Ohio Valley, and rest of the Northeast=20   
   before this event winds down.   
      
   Although most of the accumulation will occur by 12Z Monday, the   
   aforementioned inverted trough linking back to the upper low may   
   allow for wrap-around snowfall to linger much of Monday and into   
   Monday night adding a few more inches of cold fluffy snow to the   
   area, especially New England and Upstate NY. WSSI-P indicates   
   continues high probabilities (>80%) for major impacts, and the I-95   
   corridor between NYC and Portland, ME will be treacherous through   
   Monday.   
      
   Farther south, freezing rain will continue for parts of the Mid-   
   Atlantic, especially northern NC, southeast VA, and potentially   
   along the I-95 corridor as far north as NYC. While additional   
   freezing rain amounts are expected to be modest as precip begins to   
   wind down (WPC probabilities suggest a 50-70% chance of at least   
   0.1" of ice), this will be on top of prior icing to enhance impacts   
   including treacherous travel and power outages. With extremely cold   
   temperatures likely after this storm persisting for many days, any   
   power outages will become a life-threatening situation for parts of   
   the Mid-Atlantic states.   
      
      
   ...Great Lakes...   
   Days 1-3...   
      
   Broad cyclonic flow will persist across the east, and multiple   
   embedded shortwaves will ride through this trough out of Canada,   
   each one acting to reinforce cold advection (CAA) across the Great   
   Lakes to support rounds of lake effect snow (LES). While GLERL   
   indicates that water temperatures are cooling, Lake Erie is   
   entirely ice covered, and with the very cold temperatures this week   
   continuing, additional ice cover is expected. However, there   
   should still be sufficient instability and moisture to support LES   
   each day through the forecast period. LES is not expected to be   
   extremely intense, although will be efficient downstream of Lake   
   Ontario towards the Tug Hill Plateau at times, and it is this area   
   that is expected to receive the heaviest LES. WPC probabilities for   
   all 3 days indicate a high chance (>70%) for at least 8 inches east   
   of Lake Ontario, with lower probabilities for 8+ inches (10-30%   
   chance) southeast of Lake Michigan and across the eastern U.P. on   
   the south shore of Lake Superior.   
      
   Weiss   
      
      
      
   ...Winter Storm Key Messages are in effect. Please see current=20   
    Key Messages below...   
      
   https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/key_messages/Late=   
   stKeyMessage_1.png__;!!DZ3fjg!5X0xN7MdHtpiv0Oq5XxTtzmHSf-mjyyl5Z8e4q_9Z6UZb=   
   c44QpuSi4xTywscDvjJby3zed3keoBg7ZLpxNDxroebvd4$=20   
      
   https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/key_messages/Late=   
   stKeyMessage_2.png__;!!DZ3fjg!5X0xN7MdHtpiv0Oq5XxTtzmHSf-mjyyl5Z8e4q_9Z6UZb=   
   c44QpuSi4xTywscDvjJby3zed3keoBg7ZLpxNDxHkG_Cm8$=20   
      
      
      
   $$   
      
   =3D =3D =3D   
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