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   TID: SBBSecho 3.28-Linux master/123f2d28a Jul 12 2025 GCC 12.2.0   
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   ACUS11 KWNS 251556   
   SWOMCD   
   SPC MCD 251555=20   
   GAZ000-FLZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-251800-   
      
   Mesoscale Discussion 0057   
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK   
   0955 AM CST Sun Jan 25 2026   
      
   Areas affected...southern AL...FL Panhandle...southwest GA   
      
   Concerning...Severe potential...Tornado Watch likely=20   
      
   Valid 251555Z - 251800Z   
      
   Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent   
      
   SUMMARY...Severe potential will likely increase into early afternoon   
   with a QLCS and embedded supercells capable of producing damaging   
   winds and tornadoes. A tornado watch will likely be needed.   
      
   DISCUSSION...Along a pronounced cold front to the south-southwest of   
   a surface cyclone between TCL and SEM, convective intensities appear   
   to be increasing to the central Gulf Coast. Pre-frontal cells have   
   also increased over the past hour, and an increasing severe threat   
   is anticipated as activity matures over the next 2-3 hours. While   
   pervasive downstream cloud coverage is limiting boundary-layer   
   heating in the confined warm-moist sector, 60s surface dew points   
   are sufficient for weak to modest MLCAPE from Mobile Bay and the   
   western FL Panhandle northward into south-central AL. This   
   warm-moist sector will shift east through the afternoon and likely   
   reach southwest GA to the eastern FL Panhandle. Low-level shear is   
   quite strong with enlarged hodographs favoring   
   mesocyclone/mesovortex development. Expectation is for a QLCS to   
   evolve east through the afternoon with a threat for damaging winds   
   and brief tornadoes. If semi-discrete supercells can form ahead of   
   and merge into the QLCS, a longer-tracked tornado or two is   
   possible.   
      
   ..Grams/Hart.. 01/25/2026   
      
   ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=   
   g!91ezbwjNjRma2XWyu6SmStzUYOa2YdmGxDdoo_3X6JEuZDMJD28JLcZUNiL0DyyxzyFQiK9PC=   
   UPgvufDhtaD8G5yuGw$  for graphic product...   
      
   ATTN...WFO...FFC...TAE...BMX...MOB...LIX...   
      
   LAT...LON   30388857 31858758 32418709 32478584 32218462 32008402   
               31608382 30688419 29788531 30188614 30388857=20   
      
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-130 MPH   
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH   
      
      
   =3D =3D =3D   
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