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   TID: SBBSecho 3.28-Linux master/123f2d28a Jul 12 2025 GCC 12.2.0   
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   FOUS30 KWBC 251537   
   QPFERD   
      
   Excessive Rainfall Discussion   
   NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD   
   1037 AM EST Sun Jan 25 2026   
      
   Day 1   
   Valid 12Z Sun Jan 25 2026 - 12Z Mon Jan 26 2026   
      
   ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ACROSS PORTIONS   
   OF THE DEEP SOUTH AND ADJACENT SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS...   
      
   16z update:   
   Meteorological reasoning remains solid given 40-50kts of low level   
   flow and ample, though shallow moisture with PW values around=20   
   1.75" near the coast and 1.5" as far north as the triple point in=20   
   central AL. Hourly rates of 1.25-1.75" remain possible, though=20   
   duration is likely going to be the limiting factor. Convective=20   
   steering may support some southwest to northeast short-term=20   
   training especially if a pre-frontal convective development could=20   
   arise, though observational trends are not suggestive of that at=20   
   this time, with ongoing shallow cells still along the cold front or   
   even anafrontal (becoming freezing rain).=20   
      
   Still 12z Hi-Res CAMs and HREF probabilities still hint at   
   localized streak of 2-2.5" in 3-6hrs, placing it around the FFG=20   
   values especially across central AL into the southern Appalachians.   
   Winter mix from overnight period, likely will further complicate=20   
   hydrological situation with increased run-off as well especially in   
   the vicinity of the TN boarder with GA/NC. As such, only small=20   
   adjustments to the edges of the Marginal Risk were made.=20   
      
   Overall, the strongest cells (capable of .5 to .75"/15 minutes per   
   HRRR) are most likely to be remain along the Coastal Plains of S   
   AL, S GA and the FL Panhandle where FFG values are much higher and   
   warmer ground conditions are likely to be receptive of the rates.=20   
   Trends will be watched and there will remain a non- zero risk of=20   
   flooding but still remains below 5% coverage necessary to add the=20   
   Marginal Risk for those locations.=20   
      
   Gallina   
      
      
   Day 2   
   Valid 12Z Mon Jan 26 2026 - 12Z Tue Jan 27 2026   
      
   The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is less   
   than 5 percent.   
      
   Gallina   
      
      
   Day 3   
   Valid 12Z Tue Jan 27 2026 - 12Z Wed Jan 28 2026   
      
   The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is less   
   than 5 percent.   
      
   Gallina   
      
      
   Day 1 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go=   
   v/qpf/94epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!7sL4ZafNWox0XI2Yyi-dJaXsqO7xM_ns7VjuJwZSclI4=   
   RP3WkVAuzd4a1RHNQVm-HlRjtLcBVPfpeOuxLeQ0vhayXHI$=20   
   Day 2 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go=   
   v/qpf/98epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!7sL4ZafNWox0XI2Yyi-dJaXsqO7xM_ns7VjuJwZSclI4=   
   RP3WkVAuzd4a1RHNQVm-HlRjtLcBVPfpeOuxLeQ0YHIQQJw$=20   
   Day 3 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go=   
   v/qpf/99epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!7sL4ZafNWox0XI2Yyi-dJaXsqO7xM_ns7VjuJwZSclI4=   
   RP3WkVAuzd4a1RHNQVm-HlRjtLcBVPfpeOuxLeQ0ZJ2hD8Y$=20   
      
   =3D =3D =3D   
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