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   063    
   AXNT20 KNHC 251032   
   TWDAT    
      
   Tropical Weather Discussion   
   NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL   
   1215 UTC Sun Jan 25 2026   
      
   Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America   
   Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South   
   America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the   
   Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite   
   imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.   
      
   Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1000 UTC.   
      
   ...SPECIAL FEATURES...   
      
   Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: A strong cold front moving across   
   the Texas and NE Mexican coastal waters early this morning will    
   move SE across the entire basin today through Mon evening. Strong   
   reinforcing arctic high pressure building behind the front is    
   expected to produce near gale force winds across NW portions of    
   the Gulf Sun and Sun night, gale force winds over the offshore    
   waters of Tampico Sun night through Mon morning, and gales over    
   the waters near Veracruz Mon morning through around midnight Mon.    
   Seas are expected to quickly build across the basin later today,   
   and reaching 16 or 17 ft over the SW Gulf late on Mon. Conditions   
   will improve quickly from NW to SE Tue through Wed as the front    
   moves SE into the NW Caribbean and high pressure builds across the   
   region. Mariners are advised to keep up with the latest forecasts.   
      
   Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National    
   Hurricane Center at website: https://nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml   
   for more details.   
      
   ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...   
      
   The monsoon trough extends from equatorial Africa westward into   
   the Atlantic near 06.5N11W to 06N17W. The ITCZ extends from 06N17W     
   to 00.5N29W to 01.5N41W to 00N51W. Scattered moderate isolated   
   strong convection is noted from the equator to 03N between 03W    
   and 16W. Similar convective activity is from 03N to 11N between 25W and 51W.   
      
   GULF OF MEXICO...   
      
   A weak 1009 mb low is analyzed near 27.5N94.5W, with a stationary     
   front extending northeastward into the central LA coast and   
   western Vermilion Bay, while a cold front extends from the low   
   S-SW into the NE Mexico coast just N of Tampico. A warm front    
   also extends across the far NE Gulf waters of the Florida Big Bend.   
   Scattered showers are seen along and E of the cold front and    
   stationary front. Recent derived satellite imagery also shows fog    
   banks forming between the coast and both aforementioned frontal    
   boundaries in the W and NE Gulf, so mariners should be aware for    
   the potential for reduced visibility in these areas. Recent    
   satellite scatterometer data showed moderate to fresh SE winds    
   and 2-5 ft across much of the basin ahead of the front.    
   Immediately behind the front, winds are quickly veering from the    
   NW at fresh to strong speeds, with seas are building to 5 to 7 ft   
   per local buoy data.   
      
   For the forecast, the low pressure along the cold front will    
   track NE into Louisiana today, allowing the cold front to move SE    
   across the entire basin today through Mon evening. Strong    
   reinforcing arctic high pressure building behind the front is    
   expected to produce near gale force winds across NW portions of    
   the Gulf Sun and Sun night, gale force winds over the offshore    
   waters of Tampico Sun night through Mon morning, and gales over    
   the waters near Veracruz Mon morning through around midnight Mon.    
   Seas are expected to quickly build across the basin today and    
   tonight. Conditions will improve quickly from NW to SE Tue through   
   Wed as the front moves SE into the NW Caribbean and high pressure   
   builds settles across the northern Gulf. Mariners are advised to    
   keep alert with the latest forecasts.    
      
   CARIBBEAN SEA...   
      
   Atlantic high pressure is centered over the eastern Atlantic and   
   extends a broad ridge westward along 28N-29N to near 60W. This   
   pattern is producing a modest pressure gradient across the basin   
   this morning. The most recent satellite scatterometer data    
   indicated moderate to locally fresh trades across most of the    
   basin with seas of 4 to 6 ft, except for fresh to strong trades    
   and seas of 6 to 8 ft near the coast of Colombia. Fresh trade   
   winds across the Tropical Atlantic and into the Lesser Antilles is   
   maintaining large E swell over the Tropical N Atlantic, and   
   spreading seas of 6 to 8 ft through the Atlantic Passages of the   
   Lesser Antilles, and 4 to 7 ft in the lee of the islands. Moderate   
   or weaker winds and seas of 2 to 4 ft prevail in the NW Caribbean.   
   Scattered light to moderate showers dot the waters N of 13N east of 72W.   
      
   For the forecast, broad high pressure over the eastern Atlantic    
   will maintain a ridge westward into the central Atlantic to    
   produce mostly fresh trades over the eastern and central Caribbean   
   as well as the Tropical N Atlantic waters through Tue, while    
   fresh winds offshore of Colombia pulse to strong at night. Large E   
   swell over the Tropical N Atlantic will slowly subside into early   
   next week, with seas lingering to 8 ft through early Wed. A cold    
   front will enter the NW Caribbean late Mon and begin to stall from   
   eastern Cuba to northern Honduras by late Tue into Wed, weakening   
   to a shearline Thu. Strong northerly winds will follow the front    
   before briefly diminishing to mostly fresh on Wed, and increasing    
   to fresh to strong Wed night and Thu as stronger high pressure    
   builds southward across the N Gulf of Mexico.   
      
   ATLANTIC OCEAN...   
      
   A stationary front extends from just S of Bermuda westward to a   
   weak 1020 mb low just off shore of Jacksonville, and then inland    
   across north Florida just S of Daytona Beach, FL. A surface trough   
   is analyzed E of the front and runs from 31N60W to 27N73W.    
   Another surface tough is analyzed from 31N57W to 23N65W, with    
   scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms near both troughs.   
   Fresh to strong E to SE winds generally prevail north of 29N and   
   west of 65W to 80W, where seas are 6 to 9 ft in mixed N and E-SE swell.   
      
   High pressure of 1028 mb located W of the Madeira Islands near    
   30N21W dominates the remainder of the forecast region, extending a   
   broad ridge westward along 28N-29N to near 60W. Under this    
   weather pattern, a large area of fresh to strong NE to E winds and   
   seas of 6 to 9 ft is noted from 05N to 25N and E of 40W,    
   including the Cabo Verde Islands. In the far east Atlantic, large   
   lingering N swell with seas of 12 to 16 ft persists near the    
   Canary Islands and offshore Morocco. Moderate to fresh trades are   
   occurring S of 22N and W of 40W, including the Caribbean    
   Passages, where seas are 7 to 10 ft. Moderate or weaker winds and   
   moderate seas prevail elsewhere within the ridge.   
      
   For the forecast west of 55W, fresh to strong S to SW winds will    
   develop over the NW forecast waters late this afternoon through    
   early Mon in advance of a strong arctic cold front that is    
   expected to move offshore northeast Florida on Mon morning. SW    
   winds to near gale force will develop just N of the area early on    
   Mon. The front will reach from near 31N72W to the NW Bahamas and    
   to west Cuba Mon evening, from near 31N56W to the SE Bahamas and    
   to eastern Cuba Tue evening, then begin to become stationary and    
   weaken as it reaches from near 31N50W to the SE Bahamas and to    
   eastern Cuba Wed evening. Fresh to strong northerly winds and    
   rough seas are expected W of the front Mon afternoon through Tue    
   afternoon. The frontal boundary will begin to dissipate on Thu as    
   another strong cold front moves out across the western forecast    
   waters, reaching 31N60W to the SE Bahamas by Thu evening.    
      
   $$   
   Stripling   
   --- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux   
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