TZUTC: 0000   
   MSGID: 168902.weather@1:2320/105 2dddda9a   
   PID: Synchronet 3.21a-Linux master/123f2d28a Jul 12 2025 GCC 12.2.0   
   TID: SBBSecho 3.28-Linux master/123f2d28a Jul 12 2025 GCC 12.2.0   
   BBSID: CAPCITY2   
   CHRS: ASCII 1   
   FORMAT: flowed   
   ACUS01 KWNS 251247   
   SWODY1   
   SPC AC 251245   
      
   Day 1 Convective Outlook   
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK   
   0645 AM CST Sun Jan 25 2026   
      
   Valid 251300Z - 261200Z   
      
   ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHERN   
   AL...SOUTHWEST GA...AND THE FL PANHANDLE...   
      
   ...SUMMARY...   
   Severe thunderstorms are possible across portions of the Southeast   
   states this morning and afternoon. Damaging gusts and a few   
   tornadoes are the main concerns.   
      
   ...Portions of the Southeast States...   
   Early-morning satellite imagery shows a southern-stream shortwave   
   trough moving across the southern Plains and into the more   
   single-stream confluent flow across the eastern CONUS. Surface   
   analysis places the low associated with this shortwave over the   
   central MS/AL border vicinity. A cold front extends from this low   
   southwestward through southeast LA and into the western Gulf.   
   Combination of these features compose the large winter storm system   
   that is impacting much of the central and eastern CONUS.   
      
   Recent regional radar imagery and surface observations reveal an   
   extensive area of anafrontal showers and thunderstorms from east TX   
   into MS and TN Valley. Much of this precipitation is falling as   
   either freezing rain or sleet, with sporadic lightning accompanying   
   this winter precipitation across east TX, northern/central LA, and   
   western/northwestern MS. Currently, the warm sector, which extends   
   from southeast LA across southern AL and southern MS into the FL   
   Panhandle, is free of any thunderstorms. This is expected to change   
   throughout the morning as continued moisture advection further   
   modifies the airmass and modest buoyancy develops ahead of the   
   advancing cold front. Despite the fast progression of the cold   
   front, strong deep-layer vertical shear should allow for the   
   maintenance of deep convection along the frontal zone once it begins   
   to encounter the modest buoyancy. Additionally, the strong vertical   
   shear should also allow for some organization/rotation within any   
   deeper, more persistent updrafts.   
      
   Damaging gusts appear to be the primary severe risk, with the risk   
   concentrated from southern AL and the western FL Panhandle into   
   southwest GA and the central FL Panhandle where the best   
   thermodynamics (i.e. 500-1000 J/kg of MLCAPE) are forecast.   
   Low-level shear is strong enough to support a tornado risk in this   
   area as well, with the linear nature of the convection favoring   
   brief cell-in-line/QLCS circulations (in contrast to a more   
   discrete, supercellular mode). A few discrete cells ahead of the   
   line cannot be entirely ruled out. However, limited residence time   
   due to the fast-moving front and likely shallow character due to   
   limited buoyancy should prevent these updrafts from maturing.   
      
   ..Mosier/Broyles.. 01/25/2026   
      
   $$   
      
   = = =   
   To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to   
   https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link.  Otherwise email   
   Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.   
      
   --- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux   
    * Origin: Capitol City Online (1:2320/105)   
   SEEN-BY: 1/19 100 16/0 19/10 37 104/119 105/81 106/201 114/10 120/302   
   SEEN-BY: 123/130 128/187 129/14 142/104 153/757 7715 154/10 30 50   
   SEEN-BY: 154/110 700 203/0 218/700 840 220/10 20 90 221/1 6 360 226/18   
   SEEN-BY: 226/30 44 50 227/114 229/110 134 206 300 307 317 400 426   
   SEEN-BY: 229/428 470 664 700 705 240/5832 266/512 280/5003 291/111   
   SEEN-BY: 301/1 320/119 219 319 2119 322/757 762 326/101 335/364 341/66   
   SEEN-BY: 342/200 396/45 423/81 460/58 633/280 712/848 902/26 2320/0   
   SEEN-BY: 2320/105 304 3634/12 5020/400 5075/35   
   PATH: 2320/105 154/10 221/6 1 320/219 229/426