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   PID: Synchronet 3.21a-Linux master/123f2d28a Jul 12 2025 GCC 12.2.0   
   TID: SBBSecho 3.28-Linux master/123f2d28a Jul 12 2025 GCC 12.2.0   
   BBSID: CAPCITY2   
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   FOUS30 KWBC 250712   
   QPFERD   
      
   Excessive Rainfall Discussion   
   NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD   
   212 AM EST Sun Jan 25 2026   
      
   Day 1   
   Valid 12Z Sun Jan 25 2026 - 12Z Mon Jan 26 2026   
      
   ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ACROSS PORTIONS   
   OF THE DEEP SOUTH AND ADJACENT SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS...   
      
   Latest guidance depicts a gradual uptick in convective coverage in   
   the first half of the forecast period from eastern Mississippi into   
   western/central Alabama - forced by an approaching mid-level wave   
   over Texas and dramatic increase in confluent low-level flow across   
   the Deep South. Though convection will be relatively quickly   
   moving, cell mergers amid 1.4-1.6 inch PW values will support   
   areas of heavy rain, with a few locales exceeding 2 inches in 3   
   hours. FFG thresholds are in that general range (2 in./3 hr.)   
   across Mississippi through central Alabama, potentially resulting   
   in areas of excessive runoff. Peak timing of this risk will be in   
   the 12-21Z timeframe.   
      
   Over time, models spread convection eastward into portions of   
   central/southern Alabama and southwestern Georgia, with a greater   
   likelihood of surface-based convection. FFGs are substantially   
   higher across these areas with drier antecedent conditions and low   
   streamflows. Convective mode (derived by high-res guidance)=20   
   depicts a forward-propagating linear complex with rain rates=20   
   peaking at around 1-1.5 inch/3 hours on an isolated basis. Any=20   
   flash flood threat in this region should be relatively isolated in=20   
   nature with less than 5% coverage.   
      
   Cook   
      
      
   Day 2   
   Valid 12Z Mon Jan 26 2026 - 12Z Tue Jan 27 2026   
      
   The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is less   
   than 5 percent.   
      
   Cook   
      
      
   Day 3   
   Valid 12Z Tue Jan 27 2026 - 12Z Wed Jan 28 2026   
      
   The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is less   
   than 5 percent.   
      
   Cook   
      
      
   Day 1 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go=   
   v/qpf/94epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!5qPJY4eteHvY-1b7hjB5wTn-Z5_gEnC0Js2OZoL618Im=   
   EuVc0TffBI5i3PsTuhl551UcK_d6tNZmhG0oYbCz8XhkPGA$=20   
   Day 2 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go=   
   v/qpf/98epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!5qPJY4eteHvY-1b7hjB5wTn-Z5_gEnC0Js2OZoL618Im=   
   EuVc0TffBI5i3PsTuhl551UcK_d6tNZmhG0oYbCzL4kBFvg$=20   
   Day 3 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go=   
   v/qpf/99epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!5qPJY4eteHvY-1b7hjB5wTn-Z5_gEnC0Js2OZoL618Im=   
   EuVc0TffBI5i3PsTuhl551UcK_d6tNZmhG0oYbCzrOYISgo$=20   
      
   =3D =3D =3D   
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