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   PID: Synchronet 3.21a-Linux master/123f2d28a Jul 12 2025 GCC 12.2.0   
   TID: SBBSecho 3.28-Linux master/123f2d28a Jul 12 2025 GCC 12.2.0   
   BBSID: CAPCITY2   
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   ACUS01 KWNS 250527   
   SWODY1   
   SPC AC 250526   
      
   Day 1 Convective Outlook   
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK   
   1126 PM CST Sat Jan 24 2026   
      
   Valid 251200Z - 261200Z   
      
   ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF   
   THE EASTERN GULF COAST STATES...   
      
   ...SUMMARY...   
   Severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of the eastern Gulf   
   Coast states this morning and afternoon. Damaging gusts and a few   
   tornadoes are the main concerns.   
      
   ...01z Update...   
      
   Southern Plains short-wave trough is forecast to eject across the   
   Arklatex early in the period as a 100+kt 500mb speed max translates   
   across northern MS, then increases to near 130kt over WV by 26/00z.   
   Modest midlevel height falls will spread across the Gulf states and   
   a strong LLJ will respond just downstream from northern AL into the   
   Middle Atlantic. Associated polar front will surge into MS/southern   
   LA by sunrise then shift into AL by 18z. Latest model guidance   
   suggests modified Gulf air mass will advance inland ahead of the   
   surging boundary such that weak buoyancy will develop within roughly   
   100mi of the Gulf coast. Forecast soundings suggest SBCAPE on the   
   order of 500 J/kg could be noted prior to frontal passage where   
   surface dew points rise into the mid-upper 60s. Given the deep layer   
   shear, convection that develops within this environment would have   
   some potential to organize with some supercell risk. For these   
   reasons have maintained SLGT risk near the Gulf coast to account for   
   morning-afternoon thunderstorms ahead of the cold front. Damaging   
   winds and perhaps a few tornadoes are the primary concerns.   
      
   ..Darrow/Thornton.. 01/25/2026   
      
   $$   
      
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