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   FOUS30 KWBC 241957   
   QPFERD   
      
   Excessive Rainfall Discussion   
   NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD   
   257 PM EST Sat Jan 24 2026   
      
   Day 1   
   Valid 16Z Sat Jan 24 2026 - 12Z Sun Jan 25 2026   
      
   ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OVER   
   CENTRAL/SOUTHERN LOUISIANA INTO SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI...   
      
   An Arctic front, analyzed 50-100 miles south of the LA coast at   
   15Z is expected to slowly lift north today/tonight over   
   southeastern LA and southern MS with a weak surface wave or two   
   developing along the front. This will occur ahead of an eastward   
   advancing southern stream shortwave trough over the Baja Peninsula,   
   with anomalous moisture out ahead advecting northward from the   
   Gulf. Earlier this morning (13-14Z), observed hourly rainfall rates   
   along the upper Texas Coast were in the 2 to 3 inch range with 1   
   inch in 15 minutes reported in Brazoria County. This same moisture   
   plume will be advancing downstream across the central Gulf Coast   
   with precipitable water values increasing into the 1.5 to 1.9 inch   
   range.   
      
   Relatively steep 700-500 mb lapse rates of 6.5 to 7.5 C/km will   
   support elevated instability above a low-level inversion located   
   between 850 mb and just above the surface to support MUCAPE up to   
   ~1000 J/kg from LA into south-central MS with parcels more surface   
   based as one moves closer to the Gulf Coast. While CAPE will be   
   marginal, sufficient shear will exist for quasi-organized cells   
   with motions similar to the orientation of low level convergence   
   axes, allowing for training potential. Hourly rainfall of 1 to 2+   
   inches and 24 hour storm totals of 3 to 5 inches will be possible.   
   A lower end Marginal Risk was introduced in coordination with the   
   affected WFOs, with impacts likely remaining focused within any   
   urban overlap of heavy rain.   
      
   Otto   
      
      
   Day 2   
   Valid 12Z Sun Jan 25 2026 - 12Z Mon Jan 26 2026   
      
   ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ACROSS THE   
   DEEP SOUTH AND ADJACENT SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS...   
      
   Showers and thunderstorms are likely to be ongoing at the start of   
   the period (12Z Sunday) across the Lower MS Valley into central=20   
   MS the northern half of GA. Instability across the D2 area of   
   concern (central MS into the southern Appalachians) is expected to   
   remain weak and likely reduce from its peak of ~500 J/kg from the=20   
   early morning to the late afternoon. Areas of SW to NE training=20   
   near a frontal boundary beneath modestly diffluent flow aloft with   
   hourly rainfall totals of 1 to 2 inches will be possible. By=20   
   around 18Z, eastward translation of an upstream shortwave should=20   
   coincide with the axis of heavier precipitation moving toward the=20   
   east at a steady pace with only brief training possible along and   
   ahead of the main precipitation axis. As heavier precipitation=20   
   reaches the southern Appalachians, hourly rainfall is likely to   
   peak in the 0.5 to 1.0 inch range but freezing rain for portions=20   
   of the area will limit runoff potential. Locally sensitive ground=20   
   conditions/urban areas will be at greatest risk of runoff concerns,   
   though the overall threat appears to be fairly isolated in nature.   
   24 total rainfall totals for the region are expected to range from   
   1 to 3 inches (perhaps locally in excess of 3 inches) through 12Z=20   
   Monday.   
      
   Otto   
      
      
   Day 3   
   Valid 12Z Mon Jan 26 2026 - 12Z Tue Jan 27 2026   
      
   The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is less   
   than 5 percent.   
      
   Otto   
      
      
   Day 1 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go=   
   v/qpf/94epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!9lOkEfmgh31k_kqlAfKai4va8rhPkSBAO_VpMTDzEu6D=   
   LbdofrqHNUTA73mletZ6GYNspyo0rpNlD3NL0XJ72WFksSw$=20   
   Day 2 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go=   
   v/qpf/98epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!9lOkEfmgh31k_kqlAfKai4va8rhPkSBAO_VpMTDzEu6D=   
   LbdofrqHNUTA73mletZ6GYNspyo0rpNlD3NL0XJ7txMRELM$=20   
   Day 3 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go=   
   v/qpf/99epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!9lOkEfmgh31k_kqlAfKai4va8rhPkSBAO_VpMTDzEu6D=   
   LbdofrqHNUTA73mletZ6GYNspyo0rpNlD3NL0XJ7GM8lVE8$=20   
      
   =3D =3D =3D   
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