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   ACUS02 KWNS 241722   
   SWODY2   
   SPC AC 241720   
      
   Day 2 Convective Outlook   
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK   
   1120 AM CST Sat Jan 24 2026   
      
   Valid 251200Z - 261200Z   
      
   ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF FAR   
   SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI INTO SOUTHERN ALABAMA...SOUTHERN GEORGIA...AND   
   THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE...   
      
   ...SUMMARY...   
   Severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of the eastern Gulf   
   Coast states Sunday morning and afternoon. Damaging gusts and a few   
   tornadoes are the main concerns.   
      
   ...Synopsis...   
   A surface low will traverse the Gulf Coast states tomorrow (Sunday)   
   morning and early afternoon, before ejecting northeast toward the   
   Mid Atlantic as a mid-level trough deepens east of the MS River. A   
   constrained warm sector will become established ahead of a   
   progressive surface cold front and south of a warm front over   
   southeast MS into southern AL/GA during the morning/early afternoon   
   hours. Strong flow aloft will overspread this warm sector, resulting   
   in enough overlapping buoyancy and vertical wind shear to support a   
   severe threat along the Gulf Coast.   
      
   ...Southeast Gulf Coast States...   
   Thunderstorms should be ongoing at the start of the period (12Z   
   Sunday) across parts of LA/MS, and should begin focusing into a   
   linear band along/immediately ahead of a cold front with the   
   development of the surface low. A warm front will be positioned   
   somewhere over the southern third of AL/MS Sunday morning,   
   delineating the warm sector to the south, characterized by mid to   
   upper 60s F surface temperatures and mid 60s F dewpoints.   
   Tropospheric lapse rates should be meager though (i.e. 5.5-6 C/km),   
   resulting in thin buoyancy profiles. However, nearly 100 kt   
   west-southwesterly 500 mb flow atop a 60+ kt southwesterly low-level   
   jet overspreading the warm front (with locally backed winds) will   
   support large, elongated hodographs with at least modest low-level   
   curvature. As such, a high shear/low-CAPE parameter space will   
   precede an intensifying QLCS through Sunday morning/early afternoon   
   across southeast MS into southern AL and GA, where and when the   
   severe threat is expected to be greatest.   
      
   While strong linear forcing will support a QLCS, minimal MLCINH   
   ahead of the front suggests that a couple of low-topped supercells   
   cannot be ruled out. While MLCAPE may struggle to exceed 500 J/kg   
   over most locales, widespread 60+ kts of effective bulk shear and   
   400+ m2/s2 0-3 km SRH should support some threat for damaging gusts   
   and at least a few tornadoes. The best chance for tornadoes will be   
   with storms interacting with the warm front, where low-level   
   hodograph curvature will be maximized. If a sustained supercell   
   manages to develop, a strong tornado cannot be ruled out as the   
   storm crosses the warm front. Later Sunday afternoon, the surface   
   low and forcing for ascent will drift away from the warm sector.   
   With a wedge front also expected to stall warm sector recovery from   
   central GA north/northeastward, the severe threat should wane   
   through the day.   
      
   ..Squitieri.. 01/24/2026   
      
   $$   
      
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