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   FOUS30 KWBC 241554   
   QPFERD   
      
   Excessive Rainfall Discussion   
   NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD   
   1054 AM EST Sat Jan 24 2026   
      
   Day 1   
   Valid 16Z Sat Jan 24 2026 - 12Z Sun Jan 25 2026   
      
   ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OVER   
   CENTRAL/SOUTHERN LOUISIANA INTO SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI...   
      
   An Arctic front, analyzed 50-100 miles south of the LA coast at=20   
   15Z is expected to slowly lift north today/tonight over=20   
   southeastern LA and southern MS with a weak surface wave or two=20   
   developing along the front. This will occur ahead of an eastward=20   
   advancing southern stream shortwave trough over the Baja Peninsula,   
   with anomalous moisture out ahead advecting northward from the=20   
   Gulf. Earlier this morning (13-14Z), observed hourly rainfall rates   
   along the upper Texas Coast were in the 2 to 3 inch range with 1=20   
   inch in 15 minutes reported in Brazoria County. This same moisture=20   
   plume will be advancing downstream across the central Gulf Coast=20   
   with precipitable water values increasing into the 1.5 to 1.9 inch=20   
   range.   
      
   Relatively steep 700-500 mb lapse rates of 6.5 to 7.5 C/km will=20   
   support elevated instability above a low-level inversion located   
   between 850 mb and just above the surface to support MUCAPE up to   
   ~1000 J/kg from LA into south-central MS with parcels more surface   
   based as one moves closer to the Gulf Coast. While CAPE will be   
   marginal, sufficient shear will exist for quasi-organized cells   
   with motions similar to the orientation of low level convergence   
   axes, allowing for training potential. Hourly rainfall of 1 to 2+   
   inches and 24 hour storm totals of 3 to 5 inches will be possible.   
   A lower end Marginal Risk was introduced in coordination with the=20   
   affected WFOs, with impacts likely remaining focused within any=20   
   urban overlap of heavy rain.   
      
   Otto   
      
      
   Day 2   
   Valid 12Z Sun Jan 25 2026 - 12Z Mon Jan 26 2026   
      
   ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ACROSS THE   
   DEEP SOUTH AND ADJACENT SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS...   
      
   Most guidance is supportive of perhaps several rounds of moderate   
   rain across the Marginal Risk area, preceding a more focused   
   linear complex progged to move through the discussion area from   
   west to east in the 12Z-00Z timeframe. The combination of preceding   
   rainfall, moistening/destabilizing environment (via advection   
   processes), and locally sensitive ground conditions/urban areas are   
   all suggestive of isolated excessive runoff concerns. The extent   
   of icing/freezing conditions across the southern Appalachians are   
   likely to hinder runoff, but decided to keep the Marginal Risk area   
   there for the sake of consistency. Only changes to the ongoing   
   forecast are a slight expansion of Marginal southeastward into   
   west-central/central Alabama (southwest of Birmingham), where   
   modeled convective trends suggest an uptick in QPF/flash flood   
   potential (albeit isolated).   
      
   Cook   
      
      
   Day 3   
   Valid 12Z Mon Jan 26 2026 - 12Z Tue Jan 27 2026   
      
   The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is less   
   than 5 percent.   
      
   Cook   
      
      
   Day 1 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go=   
   v/qpf/94epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!5FN2-D-kaawlODANBPrTajyz-2p6jjFDQzOD7Znia4t9=   
   n0Hth7qx8ympG3gFIr68TZaT-SrlGylqz5p8BHZiVH_UbaE$=20   
   Day 2 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go=   
   v/qpf/98epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!5FN2-D-kaawlODANBPrTajyz-2p6jjFDQzOD7Znia4t9=   
   n0Hth7qx8ympG3gFIr68TZaT-SrlGylqz5p8BHZiy5DSRUY$=20   
   Day 3 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go=   
   v/qpf/99epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!5FN2-D-kaawlODANBPrTajyz-2p6jjFDQzOD7Znia4t9=   
   n0Hth7qx8ympG3gFIr68TZaT-SrlGylqz5p8BHZiax1cfrI$=20   
      
   =3D =3D =3D   
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