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   AXNT20 KNHC 241028   
   TWDAT    
      
   Tropical Weather Discussion   
   NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL   
   1215 UTC Sat Jan 24 2026   
      
   Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America   
   Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South   
   America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the   
   Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite   
   imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.   
      
   Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1000 UTC.   
      
   ...SPECIAL FEATURES...   
      
   Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: A strong cold front will move across   
   the basin Sunday through early Tuesday. Arctic high pressure of   
   near 1040 mb will move into Texas Sun night and settle in behind    
   the front, and is expected to drive strong to near gale- force NW    
   to N winds across NW and N central portions of the Gulf Sun and    
   Sun night. Gale conditions are possible over the offshore waters    
   of Tampico Sun night into Mon morning, and are likely over the    
   waters offshore Veracruz on Mon and Mon night. Seas will quickly    
   build behind the front as well, with rough to very rough seas    
   expected. Seas look to peak around 16-17 ft in the SW Gulf near   
   the Veracruz waters on Monday.   
      
   Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National    
   Hurricane Center at website:   
   https://nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml  for more details.   
      
   ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...   
      
   The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic along the coast of Sierra   
   Leone near 08.5N13W, then continues SW to near 06N16W. The ITCZ    
   extends from 06N16W to 01.5N22W to 02.5N33W to 00N50W. Scattered    
   moderate to strong convection is noted from 00.5N to 06N between    
   12W and 28W. Scattered moderate convection is noted S of 07.5N   
   between 30W and 49W.    
      
   ...GULF OF MEXICO...   
      
   A nearly stationary front extends across northern Florida   
   southwestward across the Florida Big Bend to 27.5N88W and to the    
   central coast of Texas. Scattered showers are seen near this    
   boundary east of 90W, while moderate to locally fresh NE to E winds   
   and seas of 3-5 ft prevail north of the front. Otherwise, a weak    
   surface ridge dominates the remainder of the Gulf region    
   supporting gentle to moderate NE to E winds and slight seas E of   
   91W and moderate to fresh SE winds W of 91W, with seas of 2 to 5 ft.   
      
   For the forecast, the stationary front will linger through   
   late this morning before it lifts N as a warm front, ahead of a    
   strong cold front expected this afternoon. The cold front will    
   move into the Texas coastal waters this afternoon, then stall    
   through late Sat night as low pressure forms near the southern    
   Texas coast and rides NE along the front through Sun. The front    
   will then move SE across the entire basin Sun through Mon evening.   
   Strong reinforcing Arctic high pressure behind the front is    
   expected to produce near gale force winds across NW portions of    
   the Gulf Sun and Sun night, possible gale conditions over the    
   offshore waters of Tampico Sun night into Mon morning, and gales    
   over the waters offshore Veracruz Mon through early Mon night.    
   Conditions will improve quickly from NW to SE Tue through Wed as    
   the front moves SE into the NW Caribbean.    
      
   ...CARIBBEAN SEA...   
      
   The most recent satellite scatterometer data showed fresh to strong   
   trades over the south-central to SW Caribbean south of 13N due to   
   the pressure gradient between the Atlantic high pressure ridge    
   and the Colombian/Panamanian low. Seas are 6 to 8 ft with these    
   winds. Moderate to fresh winds and moderate seas are noted    
   elsewhere across the eastern and central Caribbean, including the    
   Windward Passage. Gentle to moderate winds and slight seas prevail   
   across the NW part of the basin. Widely scattered light passing   
   showers dot much of the NE, W-central and SW portions of the basin.   
      
   For the forecast, broad high pressure centered over the east-   
   central Atlantic will maintain a modest ridge N of the area to   
   produce mostly fresh trades over the eastern and central    
   Caribbean as well as the Tropical N Atlantic waters through early    
   next week, while fresh winds offshore of Colombia pulse to strong    
   speeds at night through Sun, then to near gale force afterward    
   into midweek. Large E swell over the Tropical N Atlantic will    
   slowly subside through the weekend, but remain around 8 ft through   
   early next week. A cold front will enter the NW Caribbean late    
   Mon and begin to stall from eastern Cuba to the Gulf of Honduras    
   by late Tue into Wed. Strong northerly winds will follow the front   
   before gradually diminishing to moderate to fresh speeds Wed.   
      
   ...ATLANTIC OCEAN...   
      
   A cold front is analyzed from the Moroccan coast near 26N15W to    
   25N21W to 25N30W, where it transitions to a shear line that    
   extends to 31N38W. Fresh to strong NE winds and rough seas are N    
   of the front and shear line. Very rough seas of 12-16 ft are seen    
   N of 28N between 20W and 35W. Elsewhere, surface ridging    
   dominates much of the Atlantic, with fresh to strong trades and    
   seas of 7-11 ft prevailing across much of the Atlantic S of 25N    
   and E of 60W. Moderate to fresh trades and 6-8 ft seas are S of    
   25N between 60W and 70W, with moderate or weaker winds and seas elsewhere.   
      
   For the forecast west of 55W, a stationary front extends from    
   near Jacksonville, FL northeastward across the western Atlantic,    
   while a surface trough is E of this boundary from 31N71W to the    
   the NW Bahamas. Meanwhile, high pressure is centered across the    
   east-central Atlantic and extends a broad ridge W-SW to just S of    
   Bermuda. The trough and ridge will shift slowly NE through Sat    
   night. Fresh to strong S to SW winds will develop over the NW    
   forecast waters Sun evening through early Mon in advance of a    
   strong Arctic cold front that is expected to move offshore    
   northeastern Florida early Mon. Winds to near gale force will    
   develop just N of the area early on Mon. The front will reach from   
   near 31N70W to the NW Bahamas and Straits of Florida Mon evening,   
   from near 31N56W to the SE Bahamas and eastern Cuba Tue evening,    
   then weaken as it reaches from near 31N51W to 26N60W then    
   stationary to the SE Bahamas and eastern Cuba Wed afternoon. Fresh   
   to strong northerly winds and rough seas are expected W of the    
   front Mon afternoon through Tue afternoon, becoming mostly fresh    
   NE winds Tue night and Wed within about 180 nm NW of the frontal boundary.   
      
   $$   
   Stripling   
   --- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux   
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