TZUTC: 0000   
   MSGID: 168860.weather@1:2320/105 2ddc888f   
   PID: Synchronet 3.21a-Linux master/123f2d28a Jul 12 2025 GCC 12.2.0   
   TID: SBBSecho 3.28-Linux master/123f2d28a Jul 12 2025 GCC 12.2.0   
   BBSID: CAPCITY2   
   CHRS: ASCII 1   
   FORMAT: flowed   
   ACUS01 KWNS 241245   
   SWODY1   
   SPC AC 241243   
      
   Day 1 Convective Outlook   
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK   
   0643 AM CST Sat Jan 24 2026   
      
   Valid 241300Z - 251200Z   
      
   ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...   
      
   ...SUMMARY...   
   Severe thunderstorms are not forecast today.   
      
   ...Southern Plains/Lower MS Valley/Southeast...   
   Early-morning satellite imagery shows a well-defined upper low just   
   off the coast of the central Baja Peninsula. Deep southwesterly flow   
   aloft extends northeastward from this low across Mexico and the   
   southern Plains before joining the more confluent, single-stream   
   southwesterlies in place from the MS Valley eastward.   
      
   A subtle shortwave trough is currently progressing northeastward   
   across central TX within the belt of stronger flow preceding the   
   upper low, contributing to some deeper convective cores over the   
   region. Expectation is for this shortwave to continue northeastward,   
   resulting in an expansion of precipitation downstream. Forecast   
   soundings do show some minimal buoyancy, supporting the potential   
   for some deeper convective cores capable of lightning. Highest   
   thunderstorm chances will be concentrated across southern LA, but   
   low probabilities also exist farther north where low-level profiles   
   will be cold enough for freezing rain and/or sleet.   
      
   The Baja upper low is forecast to progress eastward throughout the   
   day, moving across central Mexico and reaching central TX by early   
   tomorrow morning. Evolution of this low will encourage northeastward   
   progression of a surface low along the surging arctic cold front.   
   This will take the low from its current location over deep south TX   
   quickly northeastward over the northwest Gulf basin, across southern   
   LA and to the central AL/MS border vicinity. Strong low-level   
   southerly flow is anticipated ahead of the upper low and associated   
   surface low as well, with this overall evolution contributing to   
   rapid airmass modification from the central Gulf Coast into central   
   AL and MS. Even with this modification, most forecast soundings   
   depict a boundary layer that does not recover adequately for   
   surface-based convection.   
      
   General expectation is for ascent attendant to this system to   
   support another round of precipitation beginning over east TX after   
   06Z before expanding northeastward with time. Some very modest   
   buoyancy is possible atop a strong warm noise, with isolated   
   elevated thunderstorms possible. This thunder potential includes   
   areas from east TX across northern/central LA into northern MS where   
   surface temperatures will be below freezing, suggesting some   
   lightning is possible with mixed winter precipitation.   
      
   ...Southwest...   
   A shortwave trough is forecast to progress cyclonically from central   
   CA into AZ during the period. Cold mid-level temperatures combined   
   with ascent from the shortwave will support the potential for a few   
   isolated thunderstorms across central and southeast AZ and southwest   
   NM from the late afternoon through tonight.   
      
   ..Mosier/Broyles.. 01/24/2026   
      
   $$   
      
   = = =   
   To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to   
   https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link.  Otherwise email   
   Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.   
      
   --- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux   
    * Origin: Capitol City Online (1:2320/105)   
   SEEN-BY: 19/10 104/119 105/81 106/201 114/10 120/302 128/187 129/14   
   SEEN-BY: 153/757 7715 154/10 30 50 110 700 218/700 840 220/10 20 70   
   SEEN-BY: 220/90 221/1 6 360 226/17 18 30 44 50 227/114 229/110 134   
   SEEN-BY: 229/206 300 307 317 400 426 428 470 664 700 705 266/512 267/800   
   SEEN-BY: 291/111 301/1 320/219 322/757 335/364 341/66 342/200 396/45   
   SEEN-BY: 460/58 633/280 712/848 770/1 100 340 350 772/210 220 230   
   SEEN-BY: 902/26 2320/0 105 304 3634/12 5020/400 5075/35   
   PATH: 2320/105 154/10 221/6 218/840 770/1 633/280 229/426