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   Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0016   
   NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD   
   531 AM EST Sat Jan 24 2026   
      
   Areas affected...southeast Texas   
      
   Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible   
      
   Valid 241031Z - 241431Z   
      
   Summary...Flash flood potential will increase over the next 2-4   
   hours near Houston Metro and surrounding areas.   
      
   Discussion...Persistent warm advection across southeast Texas has   
   maintained elevated buoyancy atop a frontal zone draped   
   east-to-west across the discussion area.  This buoyancy, combined   
   with isentropic upglide and a weak mid-level disturbance   
   approaching the region has triggered increasing deep convection   
   about 60 miles west/southwest of Houston Metro.  These cells were   
   slightly elevated, but were also in an environment with ~1.5 inch   
   PW values, supporting locally heavy rainfall.  Recent MRMS data   
   suggests 1 inch/hr rates beneath the stronger activity.   
      
   On their current trajectory, these cells will migrate toward areas   
   near Houston Metro and points south over the next couple hours or   
   so. 1 inch/hr rain rates could contribute to urban   
   ponding/excessive runoff especially if localized training can be   
   established.  Flash flooding is possible in this scenario.   
      
   The flash flood threat in this region will likely last for about   
   2-4 hoursor so.  A strong cold front was surging southeastward   
   along a line from near Victoria to Cotulla.  This front will   
   eventually undercut ongoing convection as it approaches the Gulf   
   Coast through 13-14Z (7-8am Central).  Any flash flood threat   
   should decrease some behind this front as colder air filters in   
   and contributes to stabilization.   
      
   Cook   
      
   ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!=   
   DZ3fjg!_1NuyYPZ4es-I3lma45_GvQgXOYkNnYwgeBrX0QG7FE3UUPqpMC_QW6qIfL4d563QYlE=   
   QeUPL8lo4eilv0gXvbb0KjM$  for graphic product...   
      
   ATTN...WFO...CRP...EWX...HGX...LCH...   
      
   ATTN...RFC...FWR...NWC...   
      
   LAT...LON   30509549 30309452 29749446 28879538 28459699=20   
               28869758 29829739 30299658=20   
      
   =3D =3D =3D   
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