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   ACUS02 KWNS 240715   
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   SPC AC 240713   
      
   Day 2 Convective Outlook CORR 1   
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK   
   0113 AM CST Sat Jan 24 2026   
      
   Valid 251200Z - 261200Z   
      
   ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF   
   THE EASTERN GULF COAST...   
      
   CORRECTED FOR GRAPHIC ERROR   
      
   ...SUMMARY...   
   Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of the   
   eastern Gulf Coast states Sunday into Sunday night. Damaging gusts   
   are expected to be the primary risk.   
      
   ...Synopsis...   
   A broad positively tilted larger-scale mid-level trough over the   
   central US is forecast to intensify Sunday as it moves eastward and   
   absorbs several smaller perturbations ejecting from the Rockies and   
   western CONUS. The most prominent of these smaller-scale features   
   will move from the Sabine Valley and central Gulf Coast,   
   northeastward into the Tennessee Valley and central Appalachians by   
   Monday night. Amplification of the overall trough and southwesterly   
   cyclonic flow aloft will support the development of a weak surface   
   low ahead of the cold front moving into the Southeast. Southerly   
   flow ahead of this low will result in modest modification inland of   
   a remnant Gulf air mass south of a large Arctic intrusion/cold air   
   damming. Weak buoyancy and strong forcing will likely support a band   
   of thunderstorms with the potential for some strong/severe storms   
   through parts of the eastern Gulf Coast Sunday afternoon.   
      
   ...Eastern Gulf Coast States...   
   Gradual destabilization is expected early Sunday first over southern   
   LA and MS as the surface low and warm front lift northward. Strong   
   isentropic ascent over the shallow Arctic air mass will likely   
   support a band of initially elevated convection from portions of   
   East TX into southern LA and MS gradually spreading eastward. With   
   time, these storms will encounter the northward advancing modified   
   warm sector as the cold front impinges on the western edge of the   
   moisture return through the day.   
      
   Weak destabilization peaking around 500-750 J/kg of MLCAPE will   
   overlap with strong deep-layer shear of 50-60 kt. This will allow   
   for some intensification/organization of the ongoing storms where   
   the near surface air mass can destabilize. Likely linear in nature   
   owing to the strong frontal forcing, a few stronger segments appear   
   plausible, especially across southeastern Alabama and the Florida   
   Panhandle into southwestern Georgia late Sunday afternoon and   
   evening. Damaging gusts would be primary risk given 50-70 kt flow in   
   the lowest 1-3 km AGL. A brief QLCS tornado is also possible, but   
   less certain as the low-level wind field gradually veers through the   
   day as the main ascent lifts away to the north.   
      
   ..Lyons.. 01/24/2026   
      
   $$   
      
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   --- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux   
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