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   QPFERD   
      
   Excessive Rainfall Discussion   
   NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD   
   136 AM EST Sat Jan 24 2026   
      
   Day 1   
   Valid 12Z Sat Jan 24 2026 - 12Z Sun Jan 25 2026   
      
   ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL IN A SMALL PART   
   OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS...   
      
   Maintained a small part of the inherited Marginal Risk area across   
   areas near the Texas Coast. Latest guidance suggests that ongoing   
   convection across the Texas Hill Country will migrate/propagate   
   east-southeastward toward the Texas Coast area (Victoria to   
   Houston) in the 12-16Z timeframe. Point forecast soundings suggest   
   that the best combo of instability/moisture will reside in that   
   general area before convection moves though. Surface-based storms   
   could exhibit right-moving behavior due to supercellular wind=20   
   profiles aloft, with slow movement (around 15-20 knots) within a=20   
   moist environment (1.5+ inch PW), supporting efficient rain=20   
   processes and the potential for local 2-3 inch/hr rain rates. The=20   
   spatiotemporal extent of this risk is limited, with convection=20   
   either weakening or moving offshore by around midday. Isolated=20   
   flash flooding is expected primarily in the morning hours based on=20   
   this scenario.   
      
   Farther northeast, Marginal was removed from southwestern   
   Louisiana. Convection should be more elevated in nature and may   
   lose its organization some with eastward extent due to weaker   
   buoyancy and displacement from better mid/upper forcing upstream.   
   While local/minor runoff issues cannot be completely ruled out,   
   decided to focus the Marginal/5% risk probs farther southwest=20   
   where the better overall environment for flash flooding will=20   
   reside.   
      
   Cook   
      
      
   Day 2   
   Valid 12Z Sun Jan 25 2026 - 12Z Mon Jan 26 2026   
      
   ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ACROSS THE   
   DEEP SOUTH AND ADJACENT SOUTHERN APPALACIANS...   
      
   Most guidance is supportive of perhaps several rounds of moderate   
   rain across the Marginal Risk area, preceding a more focused=20   
   linear complex progged to move through the discussion area from=20   
   west to east in the 12Z-00Z timeframe. The combination of preceding   
   rainfall, moistening/destabilizing environment (via advection=20   
   processes), and locally sensitive ground conditions/urban areas are   
   all suggestive of isolated excessive runoff concerns. The extent=20   
   of icing/freezing conditions across the southern Appalachians are=20   
   likely to hinder runoff, but decided to keep the Marginal Risk area   
   there for the sake of consistency. Only changes to the ongoing=20   
   forecast are a slight expansion of Marginal southeastward into=20   
   west-central/central Alabama (southwest of Birmingham), where=20   
   modeled convective trends suggest an uptick in QPF/flash flood=20   
   potential (albeit isolated).   
      
   Cook   
      
      
   Day 3   
   Valid 12Z Mon Jan 26 2026 - 12Z Tue Jan 27 2026   
      
   The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is less   
   than 5 percent.   
      
   Cook   
      
      
   Day 1 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go=   
   v/qpf/94epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!8TsutUqxeAQCpbSDRyxrwS1z62x7J_F5q1Ao6191ImXk=   
   WpRvIy5j9MEFerH1tjrBHnfCaqDmbb_fZ1xx5Pac1lJ_KKE$=20   
   Day 2 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go=   
   v/qpf/98epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!8TsutUqxeAQCpbSDRyxrwS1z62x7J_F5q1Ao6191ImXk=   
   WpRvIy5j9MEFerH1tjrBHnfCaqDmbb_fZ1xx5PacPkPKR9g$=20   
   Day 3 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go=   
   v/qpf/99epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!8TsutUqxeAQCpbSDRyxrwS1z62x7J_F5q1Ao6191ImXk=   
   WpRvIy5j9MEFerH1tjrBHnfCaqDmbb_fZ1xx5Pacf3KblIU$=20   
      
   =3D =3D =3D   
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