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   Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0015   
   NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD   
   1023 PM EST Fri Jan 23 2026   
      
   Areas affected...portions of central Texas and the Hill Country   
      
   Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible   
      
   Valid 240322Z - 240922Z   
      
   Summary...Flash flooding is possible on a localized basis through   
   09Z/3a Central.  Areas of thunderstorms are developing and will   
   move slow enough to provide 1-2 inch/hr rain rates at times.   
      
   Discussion...Recent radar mosaic imagery depicts an uptick in   
   scattered convection across the Texas Hill Country just north of a   
   surface cold front extending from near Del Rio to near San   
   Antonio.  The storms were embedded in a strongly sheared   
   environment, with elevated instability just north of the front   
   (500-1000 J/kg MUCAPE) supporting the uptick in convection.  Weak   
   mid-level shortwave troughs were approaching from the higher   
   terrain of northern Mexico, also helping to ignite convection.  A   
   close inspection of both point forecast soundings and RAOBs depict   
   updrafts rooted at around 850mb, with wind fields supporting local   
   right-moving storm motions of 10-15 knots.  These slow storm   
   motions were combining with 1-1.4 inch PW values to support   
   estimated rain rates of around 1.5 inch/hr with convection that   
   has become established near Kerrville.  These rates are enough to   
   prompt localized flash flood concerns given sensitive/varied   
   terrain and low spots across the region.   
      
   The ongoing forecast scenario will continue for at least the next   
   6 hours.  Deeper, slower-moving convection (potentially with   
   right-moving/supercellular characteristics despite being elevated   
   above the shallow stable layer) will continue to develop   
   occasionally, but also remain tied to the slow southward progress   
   of the cold front.  Spots of 1-2 inch/hr rain rates will gradually   
   shift/develop southward and eastward toward the I-35 and I-10   
   corridors over time.  Isolated instances of flash flooding are   
   possible where these locally heavier rain rates can materialize   
   over/near sensitive terrain.   
      
   Cook   
      
   ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!=   
   DZ3fjg!-cXGI7RBYXOKdL9gC7Nr8Jofd7VtdRre4M3b0gjXeET4JN2gues8uAti2K-cBKlFviZ2=   
   w3_uxdIeaSVqXw3hk73w5cU$  for graphic product...   
      
   ATTN...WFO...CRP...EWX...SJT...   
      
   ATTN...RFC...FWR...NWC...   
      
   LAT...LON   30819890 30559786 29929754 29189767 28489889=20   
               28780009 29360103 29810147 30460160 30790051=20   
   =20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20   
      
   =3D =3D =3D   
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   --- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux   
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