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   QPFERD   
      
   Excessive Rainfall Discussion   
   NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD   
   704 PM EST Fri Jan 23 2026   
      
   Day 1   
   Valid 01Z Sat Jan 24 2026 - 12Z Sat Jan 24 2026   
      
   ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL IN AND NEAR THE   
   TEXAS HILL COUNTRY & IN SOUTH FLORIDA...   
      
   South-Central TX/TX Hill Country...   
   Maintained the low-end Marginal Risk area for a conditional flash=20   
   flood risk across the Hill Country later tonight. Overrunning=20   
   showers developed north of a front across South- Central TX   
   earlier today and continued to grow in areal coverage during the   
   afternoon. The 12Z HREF showed at least some potential for convective   
   development later tonight (generally after 24/04Z) when models   
   generate a pool of 500-1000 J/kg of MU CAPE broadens across South=20   
   TX and 850 mb inflow strengthens. Differences remain between the   
   HREF and REFS but there was enough agreement for repeating/training   
   of cells to warrant a Marginal Risk area...especially in parts of=20   
   the area that has have minimal topsoil. That would allow heavy=20   
   rainfall to more readily run off.   
      
   Bann   
      
      
   Day 2   
   Valid 12Z Sat Jan 24 2026 - 12Z Sun Jan 25 2026   
      
   ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ACROSS THE   
   IMMEDIATE NORTHWEST GULF COAST...   
      
   Guidance trends in the 12z cycle led to further suppression of the   
   Marginal Risk to the immediate Middle and Upper TX coasts as well   
   as the southwest LA coast around to the mouth of the Atchafalaya   
   Basin of south-central LA. Precipitable water values, instability,   
   and the effective bulk shear forecast still support the idea of   
   heavy rainfall, but there's an increasing risk that it could occur   
   offshore. Hourly amounts to 2" with local totals to 4" remain   
   possible. Should the south to southeast model trend continue, the   
   Marginal Risk area could be dropped on later cycles.   
      
   Roth   
      
      
   Day 3   
   Valid 12Z Sun Jan 25 2026 - 12Z Mon Jan 26 2026   
      
   ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ACROSS THE   
   INTERIOR SOUTHEAST...   
      
   Models are in pretty good agreement concerning heavy rainfall   
   across interior portions of the Southeast. Precipitable water   
   values of ~1.25" exist within a cool atmosphere, high enough for   
   saturation to occur. Low-level inflow/effective bulk shear is   
   sufficient for convective organization. The biggest question is in   
   regards to MU CAPE, with NAM guidance advertising 250-500 J/kg   
   occurring upstream of the heavy rainfall. This should be enough to   
   sustain 1"+ hourly rainfall amounts, at times. A check of model   
   soundings indicate the areas of the southernmost Appalachians are   
   expected to be above freezing/as mild as the 40sF due to northward   
   guidance trends in the winter weather system moving by to the   
   north, which led to an extension of the Marginal Risk area across   
   northernmost Georgia into far western/southwestern NC. These areas   
   have significant relief and should be less sensitive to any recent   
   dryness. The extension into the southernmost Appalachians was   
   agreeable/coordinated with the GSP/Greer SC forecast office.   
      
   Roth   
      
   Day 1 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go=   
   v/qpf/94epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!4BCPtLujiuRCgYtc8jX15I0ZE5doG8s306NvHIwxlB-i=   
   ROTbLedDilG8HsTcsnHjDbZeYmOWAV1U4TLL3DAjvXRsx4g$=20   
   Day 2 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go=   
   v/qpf/98epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!4BCPtLujiuRCgYtc8jX15I0ZE5doG8s306NvHIwxlB-i=   
   ROTbLedDilG8HsTcsnHjDbZeYmOWAV1U4TLL3DAjuskJvvs$=20   
   Day 3 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go=   
   v/qpf/99epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!4BCPtLujiuRCgYtc8jX15I0ZE5doG8s306NvHIwxlB-i=   
   ROTbLedDilG8HsTcsnHjDbZeYmOWAV1U4TLL3DAjk87LW6E$=20   
      
   =3D =3D =3D   
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