TZUTC: 0000   
   MSGID: 168835.weather@1:2320/105 2ddbd2e6   
   PID: Synchronet 3.21a-Linux master/123f2d28a Jul 12 2025 GCC 12.2.0   
   TID: SBBSecho 3.28-Linux master/123f2d28a Jul 12 2025 GCC 12.2.0   
   BBSID: CAPCITY2   
   CHRS: ASCII 1   
   FORMAT: flowed   
   ACUS11 KWNS 232350   
   SWOMCD   
   SPC MCD 232350=20   
   MSZ000-ARZ000-TXZ000-OKZ000-240445-   
      
   Mesoscale Discussion 0035   
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK   
   0550 PM CST Fri Jan 23 2026   
      
   Areas affected...Southern Oklahoma into far northern Texas and   
   southern Arkansas   
      
   Concerning...Winter mixed precipitation=20   
      
   Valid 232350Z - 240445Z   
      
   SUMMARY...Freezing rain and sleet accumulations are beginning across   
   portions of southern Oklahoma, and are expected to spread east over   
   the next several hours into northern/northeast Texas and southern   
   Arkansas as precipitation increases across the region. Freezing rain   
   rates up to 0.05 inch/hour appear likely along the Red River into   
   southern Arkansas.   
      
   DISCUSSION...Regional radar mosaics depict two plumes of moderate   
   precipitation with notable bright banding across western TX into   
   southern OK and from central TX into the Texarkana region. These   
   plumes are largely being driven by a combination of deep isentropic   
   upglide over a southward surging frontal zone and a frontogenetic   
   response between 925-850 mb. The forcing mechanisms are expected to   
   gradually shift east through late evening, which will likely result   
   in a prolonged period of precipitation along the Red River into   
   southern AR.=20   
      
   At the surface, mPING reports of sleet in Lawton, OK hint that   
   temperatures aloft (especially at around 700 mb) are likely warmer   
   than depicted by recent mesoanalyses and RAP forecast soundings   
   (implying a cold bias aloft). Recent HRRR solutions appear to be   
   better resolving the placement and magnitude of the warm nose aloft   
   (especially when compared with the recent 00z OUN sounding), and   
   suggest that freezing rain should be the predominant precipitation   
   type along/south of the Red River with increasing sleet amounts   
   further north into OK. Although temperatures across southeast OK and   
   southern AR remain above freezing as of 23:45 UTC, temperature falls   
   on the order of 2-3 F/hour are noted in ASOS/OK Mesonet   
   observations, so sub-freezing temperatures are expected within the   
   next 1-3 hours as precipitation overspreads the region.   
      
   Given these trends and recent model consensus, freezing rain rates   
   up to 0.05 inch/hour appear likely along the Red River and into   
   southern AR through 06 UTC. Sleet should be the primary   
   precipitation type with northward extent into OK with moderate to   
   heavy sleet accumulations probable. Given the weak (0.6 C) warm nose   
   at 739 mb in the recent OUN sounding, a transition zone from sleet   
   to moderate/heavy snow will likely manifest in the coming hours   
   roughly along the I-40 corridor as precipitation spreads northeast.   
      
   ..Moore.. 01/23/2026   
      
   ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=   
   g!7grxUbYkKFctfZEUe_-wb-28X-pyndrIsWwwCSwUU8EVbOjIPxvTDkyhNajorVo25kK657IEs=   
   K6wPlEKh8hpi4yyYow$  for graphic product...   
      
   ATTN...WFO...JAN...LZK...SHV...TSA...FWD...OUN...   
      
   LAT...LON   33339522 33569687 33699763 33839838 34129876 34569891   
               34949874 35149821 35259743 35199689 35099625 34949540   
               34699379 34539253 34539201 34409166 34159140 33859121   
               33369118 33159133 33059183 33069250 33339522=20   
      
      
   =3D =3D =3D   
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   --- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux   
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