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   Day 3 Convective Outlook   
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK   
   0116 PM CST Fri Jan 23 2026   
      
   Valid 251200Z - 261200Z   
      
   ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY INTO   
   SUNDAY NIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA...SOUTHEASTERN   
   MISSISSIPPI,...SOUTHEASTERN ALABAMA...SOUTHERN GEORGIA AND THE   
   FLORIDA PANHANDLE...   
      
   ...SUMMARY...   
   Strong thunderstorm development appears possible across parts of the   
   eastern Gulf Coast states Sunday into Sunday night, accompanied by   
   some risk for severe weather.   
      
   ...Discussion...   
   Within a broadly confluent regime across and east of the Rockies,   
   models suggest that positively tilted larger-scale mid-level   
   troughing may continue to consolidate while progressing across and   
   east of the Mississippi Valley during this period, downstream of   
   broad mid-level ridging within split flow developing inland of the   
   Pacific coast into Intermountain West.  In its wake, it appears that   
   another notable cold surface ridge will build south-southeastward to   
   the lee of the Rockies, through much of the Great Plains and   
   Mississippi Valley by late Sunday night.  Ahead of it, models   
   indicate that the remnants of a preceding Arctic intrusion will   
   undergo more substantive modification, but, coupled with weak inland   
    upper forcing, probably not enough to support significant frontal   
   surface cyclogenesis across the Allegheny Plateau or Southeast.   
      
   ...Eastern Gulf Coast states...   
   Guidance currently suggests that low-level thermal and moisture   
   advection, supportive of weak boundary-layer destabilization, may be   
   confined to a narrow inland spreading corridor across southeastern   
   Louisiana through portions of southern/eastern Alabama and adjacent   
   Georgia during the day Sunday, before being undercut/cut off by a   
   developing cold front.  It appears that this will coincide with, but   
   generally trail to the southwest of, a modest to weak developing   
   frontal wave across the Piedmont of Alabama into Georgia.   
      
   Strong deep-layer southwesterly flow overspreading the destabilizing   
   environment will probably still contribute to shear potentially   
   conducive to organized convective development.  This may include   
   sizable clockwise-curved low-level hodographs within the pre-cold   
   frontal warm advection regime.  However, forecast soundings suggest   
   that these low-level hodographs will trend more linear, as the   
   initially stable boundary-layer destabilizes.  So the risk for   
   tornadoes seems rather limited, but there may be a window for an   
   evolving line of storms with potential to produce strong surface   
   wind gusts, particularly across parts of southeastern Alabama and   
   the Florida Panhandle into southwestern Georgia late Sunday   
   afternoon and evening.   
      
   ..Kerr.. 01/23/2026   
      
   $$   
      
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   --- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux   
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