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   Day 2 Convective Outlook   
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK   
   1059 AM CST Fri Jan 23 2026   
      
   Valid 241200Z - 251200Z   
      
   ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...   
      
   ...SUMMARY...   
   The risk for severe thunderstorms appears negligible across the U.S.   
   Saturday through Saturday night.   
      
   ...Discussion...   
   Downstream of amplified split flow across the Pacific into western   
   North America, it still appears that several short wave troughs will   
   gradually consolidate into larger-scale mid-level troughing across   
   the Rockies and Great Plains into Mississippi Valley through this   
   period.  This is likely to include at least a couple of merging   
   perturbations of Canadian Arctic origin digging across the   
   international border through the northern U.S. Rockies and Great   
   Plains, and another emerging from the northern mid-latitude Pacific   
   before digging inland across the Pacific Northwest coast through the   
   southern Great Basin.  Yet another impulse, emerging from the   
   southern mid-latitude eastern Pacific, and currently in the form of   
   a mid-level low as it digs toward Baja, is forecast to undergo   
   considerable deformation while being forced eastward, then   
   northeastward, across the northern Mexican Plateau into the southern   
   Great Plains by late Saturday night.   
      
   This is being preceded by the southeastward development of an   
   expansive cold surface ridge across much of the nation to the east   
   of the Rockies, as far south as the Gulf coast vicinity.  While   
   highest surface pressures centered across the Upper Midwest, Ohio   
   Valley and Great Lakes at the outset of the period are forecast to   
   continue to fall while shifting northeastward, it appears that the   
   residual Arctic air mass will impede significant inland surface   
   cyclogenesis.   
      
   Models do still indicate modest deepening of surface troughing in   
   one corridor across the lower Mississippi Valley toward the lower   
   Ohio Valley (as well as in another near/offshore of the Carolina   
   coast) by late Saturday through Saturday night.  Elevated moisture   
   return above the cold air to the north and northwest of this feature   
   appears likely to be accompanied by weak destabilization.  However,   
   appreciable boundary-layer destabilization along the surface trough   
   axis, inland across southeastern Louisiana through southeastern/east   
   central Mississippi and adjacent western Alabama by 12Z Sunday,   
   appears unlikely.  This is expected to minimize the risk for severe   
   weather.   
      
   ...Southern Great Plains/Lower Mississippi Valley...   
   Convection allowing output and other guidance suggest that the most   
   substantive potential for thunderstorm development will largely   
   focus just to the cool side of the surface frontal zone, near/inland   
   of mid/upper Texas Gulf coastal areas through Louisiana and   
   central/southwestern Mississippi Saturday through Saturday night..   
   Layers of developing weak conditional and convective instability   
   further aloft, and to the west through north, might become   
   supportive of convective development capable of producing lightning,   
   anywhere from the Texas South Plains and Big Country into the Mid   
   South.  The extent of this potential remains a bit unclear due to   
   spread evident in the model output.  However, further adjustments to   
   the 10 percent thunder line may be needed in subsequent outlooks for   
   this period.   
      
   ..Kerr.. 01/23/2026   
      
   $$   
      
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