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   FOUS30 KWBC 231559   
   QPFERD   
      
   Excessive Rainfall Discussion   
   NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD   
   1059 AM EST Fri Jan 23 2026   
      
   Day 1   
   Valid 16Z Fri Jan 23 2026 - 12Z Sat Jan 24 2026   
      
   ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL IN AND NEAR THE=20   
   TEXAS HILL COUNTRY & IN SOUTH FLORIDA...   
      
   South-Central TX/TX Hill Country...   
   Maintained low-end/5% probabilities for a conditional flash flood   
   risk across the Hill Country today and tonight. Overrunning showers   
   have developed north of a front across South-Central TX.  The 12Z=20   
   HREF/06z REFS guidance indicates that some convective development=20   
   is possible this afternoon, but a bulk of the activity is expected=20   
   overnight. The atmosphere becomes increasingly saturated during the   
   day today, and a pool of 500-1000 J/kg of MU CAPE broadens across   
   South TX. During the afternoon and evening, the 850 hPa inflow=20   
   backs and increases, which led to convective development closer to=20   
   the Rio Grande within the HREF ensemble suite. Enough effective   
   bulk shear is available for convective organization.  Adjustments=20   
   to the area used the 06z REFS/12z HREF 3"+ probability footprint.=20   
   We still have discordance between the two, with the REFS showing a=20   
   much higher chance of 3"+ than the HREF. Activity would be elevated   
   and has some chance of repeating/training before moving along.   
   Parts of this area have minimal topsoil, which would allow heavy   
   rainfall to more readily run off.   
      
      
   ...South FL...   
   Activity moving south-southwest off the Gulf Stream just offshore   
   Palm Beach County along with attempts at a weak convective band=20   
   towards Key Biscayne have led to a new Marginal Risk area. Even   
   though 850 hPa inflow is weak, the flow enough is strong enough to   
   lead to ~35 kts of effective bulk shear in an environment with   
   500-1000 J/kg of ML CAPE and PWs of 1.5". Yesterday, radar   
   estimates from Key Biscayne were in the 6" range. As a precaution,   
   will raise a Marginal Risk for populated areas of South FL. Hourly   
   rain amounts up to 2" with local totals to 4" are possible. Any   
   heavy rain-related issues in urban areas would be isolated to=20   
   widely scattered.   
      
      
   Roth   
      
      
   Day 2   
   Valid 12Z Sat Jan 24 2026 - 12Z Sun Jan 25 2026   
      
   ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ACROSS THE UPPER   
   TEXAS GULF COAST AND VICINITY...   
      
   Maintained 5%/Marginal risk probabilities although with a southward   
   shift/confined to areas near Victoria, Houston, and Lake Charles.   
   Any chance of deep convection will reside near these areas during   
   the forecast period and migrate west to east during the first half   
   of the forecast period (through 00Z Sun). Lingering uncertainty   
   remains regarding the eventual progress of an Arctic front that   
   should eventually reach (or even move south of) the I-10 corridor   
   during the forecast period. If that front moves south faster than   
   guidance suggests, any deep convective threats will potentially be   
   minimized/shifted toward open Gulf waters. Upstream convective   
   evolution (storms over the Hill Country and Austin/San Antonio   
   areas during the Day 1 forecast period) also poses uncertainty   
   with the forecast. Should storms materialized as currently progged,   
   1-2 inch/hr rain rates could occur with surface-based or slightly   
   elevated convection given 1.25-1.75 inch PW values just south of   
   the front. These rates could pose excessive runoff issues should   
   they occur in sensitive and/or urban locales.   
      
   Cook   
      
   Day 3   
   Valid 12Z Sun Jan 25 2026 - 12Z Mon Jan 26 2026   
      
   ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ACROSS NORTHERN   
   AND CENTRAL ALABAMA...   
      
   Models are in pretty good agreement that a linear complex of deep   
   convection will traverse the area from west to east, with a variety   
   of solutions providing 1-3 inch rain amounts across the region.   
   Soil moistures are slightly more moist in portions of central and   
   northern Alabama compared to surrounding regions, and FFGs are   
   lower (especially near populated areas). Some concern exists   
   regarding fast storm motions (derived from point forecast   
   soundings) and questions about northward extent of moisture   
   return/60s F dewpoints and subsequent surface-based instability.   
   Enough of a signal exists across model guidance to introduce low   
   probabilities (5%) for flash flood potential in these areas, with   
   spatial refinements to the risk expected in subsequent outlooks.   
      
   Cook   
      
   Day 1 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go=   
   v/qpf/94epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!-v_HVIxYD2hz1fk8a01_2rcZ71SKtrjNd-KsGgHmF0po=   
   STbY1ImIu3-EEoQBa83QdgTXqF_bIUkHMUfP6AGQ0aBkZ5Y$=20   
   Day 2 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go=   
   v/qpf/98epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!-v_HVIxYD2hz1fk8a01_2rcZ71SKtrjNd-KsGgHmF0po=   
   STbY1ImIu3-EEoQBa83QdgTXqF_bIUkHMUfP6AGQJtxp5DM$=20   
   Day 3 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go=   
   v/qpf/99epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!-v_HVIxYD2hz1fk8a01_2rcZ71SKtrjNd-KsGgHmF0po=   
   STbY1ImIu3-EEoQBa83QdgTXqF_bIUkHMUfP6AGQXZPwT-Y$=20   
      
   =3D =3D =3D   
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