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   Day 1 Convective Outlook   
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK   
   0637 AM CST Fri Jan 23 2026   
      
   Valid 231300Z - 241200Z   
      
   ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...   
      
   ...SUMMARY...   
   Scattered weak thunderstorm activity is likely today into tonight   
   across the Texas Big Bend region into central Texas.   
      
   ...Synopsis...   
   Early-morning satellite imagery shows a well-defined upper low off   
   the northern Baja California coast, with a subtle lead shortwave   
   moving into northwest Mexico and modest shortwave ridging from   
   central Mexico into southeast AZ/southwest NM. Largely zonal flow   
   persists across much of the central and eastern CONUS.   
      
   Surface analysis reveals an expansive 1048 mb high extending from   
   the southern Canadian Prairies through the central Plains, mid MS   
   Valley, and much of the OH Valley. Very cold temperatures accompany   
   this high, and an intense cold front is currently pushing southward   
   across the TX Panhandle, northern OK, and northern AR. This same   
   front is pushing southeastward across the middle OH Valley.   
      
   ...Big Bend Region into North/Central Texas...   
   Some modest low-level moisture advection is ongoing ahead of the   
   cold front from the TX Coastal Plain into the TX Hill Country. This   
   advection is forecast to continue throughout the day, likely   
   bringing upper 50s/low 60s dewpoints as far northwest as the Edwards   
   Plateau before interacting with the front this afternoon. Heating   
   will be tempered by abundant cloud cover and mid-level lapse rates   
   will be poor. Even so, the anticipated low-level moisture coupled   
   with cold mid-level temperatures should result in a relatively   
   confined area of moderate buoyancy (i.e. MLCAPE 500-1000 J/kg)   
   tonight. Additionally, deep-layer vertical shear will be strong,   
   resulting in environmental conditions that could support a   
   strong/marginally severe storm or two. However, the overall threat   
   will be mitigated by the undercutting nature of the cold front and   
   likely storm interactions. The limited duration and isolated nature   
   of the severe threat currently precludes the need for probabilities.   
      
   Farther north and west, a large area of precipitation is expected to   
   develop behind the front, supported by the strengthening   
   southwesterly flow aloft and associated broad isentropic ascent.   
   Cooling mid-level temperatures may result in minimal buoyancy   
   (mostly after 03Z), with a few deeper convective elements within the   
   precipitation shield capable of producing lightning amid freezing   
   rain and/or sleet.   
      
   ..Mosier/Broyles.. 01/23/2026   
      
   $$   
      
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