TZUTC: 0000   
   MSGID: 168813.weather@1:2320/105 2ddafb67   
   PID: Synchronet 3.21a-Linux master/123f2d28a Jul 12 2025 GCC 12.2.0   
   TID: SBBSecho 3.28-Linux master/123f2d28a Jul 12 2025 GCC 12.2.0   
   BBSID: CAPCITY2   
   CHRS: ASCII 1   
   FORMAT: flowed   
   ACUS03 KWNS 230831   
   SWODY3   
   SPC AC 230830   
      
   Day 3 Convective Outlook   
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK   
   0230 AM CST Fri Jan 23 2026   
      
   Valid 251200Z - 261200Z   
      
   ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF   
   THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN GULF COAST...   
      
   ...SUMMARY...   
   Isolated strong to severe storms are possible over portions of the   
   central and eastern Gulf Coast Sunday.   
      
   ...Synopsis...   
   Intensifying mid-level troughing over the central US will continue   
   to amplify as it moves eastward Sunday. Strong cyclonic flow aloft   
   will overspread portions of the southern US as a second embedded   
   perturbation skirts the central and eastern Gulf Coast before being   
   consolidated into the broader upper trough. Ascent from this   
   shortwave will allow a weak surface low to develop and shift   
   east/northeastward over the Tennessee Valley before moving offshore   
   of the Carolina coast early Monday. Attendant to the low, a strong   
   arctic cold front will sweep eastward across the southern CONUS.   
   Modified Gulf moisture will be in place, supporting weak instability   
   and some potential for strong to severe storms.   
      
   ...Gulf Coast...   
   As the surface low moves onshore and deepens ahead of the advancing   
   shortwave early Sunday, inland moisture advection (60s F surface   
   dewpoints) is expected to increase over southeastern LA into   
   southern MS/AL and the western FL Panhandle in the wake of a surface   
   warm front lifting northward. Ongoing elevated convection near the   
   advancing cold front will likely encounter a warming/moistening   
   boundary layer sufficient for some intensification through the day   
   across south-central AL into the FL panhandle and southwestern GA.   
      
   Increasing southwesterly flow aloft (EBWD of 50-60 kt) will be   
   favorable for some storm organization amidst weak buoyancy (MLCAPE ~   
   500 J/kg). A broken band of storms along the cold front may pose a   
   risk for isolated damaging gusts and brief tornado where the   
   boundary layer can destabilize sufficiently inland south of the   
   prominent cold air intrusion/damming and ongoing winter weather. The   
   cold front will then continue offshore overnight with the severe   
   risk diminishing as a much colder air mass envelops the eastern   
   CONUS.   
      
   ..Lyons.. 01/23/2026   
      
   $$   
      
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   --- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux   
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