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   QPFERD   
      
   Excessive Rainfall Discussion   
   NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD   
   310 AM EST Fri Jan 23 2026   
      
   Day 1   
   Valid 12Z Fri Jan 23 2026 - 12Z Sat Jan 24 2026   
      
   ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ACROSS THE TEXAS   
   HILL COUNTRY...   
      
   Maintained low-end/5% probabilities for a conditional flash flood   
   risk across the Hill Country today and tonight. 00Z models are   
   suggestive of convection anchoring along an Arctic front - perhaps   
   becoming slightly elevated while training/repeating across   
   localized areas. This scenario is conditional on the eventual   
   location of the Arctic front moving south across the region though,   
   with some lingering uncertainty present given the tendency for=20   
   strong fronts like these to outpace guidance and move farther south   
   than anticipated. Thus, flash flood potential is conditional as=20   
   well. High-res guidance hints at a complex that grows upscale while   
   migrating east toward the Austin/San Antonio areas late in the=20   
   forecast period.   
      
   Cook   
      
   Day 2   
   Valid 12Z Sat Jan 24 2026 - 12Z Sun Jan 25 2026   
      
   ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ACROSS THE UPPER   
   TEXAS GULF COAST AND VICINITY...   
      
   Maintained 5%/Marginal risk probabilities although with a southward   
   shift/confined to areas near Victoria, Houston, and Lake Charles.   
   Any chance of deep convection will reside near these areas during   
   the forecast period and migrate west to east during the first half   
   of the forecast period (through 00Z Sun). Lingering uncertainty   
   remains regarding the eventual progress of an Arctic front that=20   
   should eventually reach (or even move south of) the I-10 corridor=20   
   during the forecast period. If that front moves south faster than=20   
   guidance suggests, any deep convective threats will potentially be=20   
   minimized/shifted toward open Gulf waters. Upstream convective=20   
   evolution (storms over the Hill Country and Austin/San Antonio=20   
   areas during the Day 1 forecast period) also poses uncertainty=20   
   with the forecast. Should storms materialized as currently progged,   
   1-2 inch/hr rain rates could occur with surface-based or slightly=20   
   elevated convection given 1.25-1.75 inch PW values just south of=20   
   the front. These rates could pose excessive runoff issues should=20   
   they occur in sensitive and/or urban locales.   
      
   Cook   
      
   Day 3   
   Valid 12Z Sun Jan 25 2026 - 12Z Mon Jan 26 2026   
      
   ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ACROSS NORTHERN   
   AND CENTRAL ALABAMA...   
      
   Models are in pretty good agreement that a linear complex of deep   
   convection will traverse the area from west to east, with a variety   
   of solutions providing 1-3 inch rain amounts across the region.   
   Soil moistures are slightly more moist in portions of central and   
   northern Alabama compared to surrounding regions, and FFGs are   
   lower (especially near populated areas). Some concern exists   
   regarding fast storm motions (derived from point forecast   
   soundings) and questions about northward extent of moisture   
   return/60s F dewpoints and subsequent surface-based instability.   
   Enough of a signal exists across model guidance to introduce low   
   probabilities (5%) for flash flood potential in these areas, with   
   spatial refinements to the risk expected in subsequent outlooks.   
      
   Cook   
      
   Day 1 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go=   
   v/qpf/94epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!-I9ovMuanCt9Z8Zp7udfVFRPISZJ5Yrp_pt_GQisKpDN=   
   33hfaeCysixVbFQTJoxWZ5IdstaPWSSXyeVCXsUZCLKo24Y$=20   
   Day 2 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go=   
   v/qpf/98epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!-I9ovMuanCt9Z8Zp7udfVFRPISZJ5Yrp_pt_GQisKpDN=   
   33hfaeCysixVbFQTJoxWZ5IdstaPWSSXyeVCXsUZ0au_68Q$=20   
   Day 3 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go=   
   v/qpf/99epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!-I9ovMuanCt9Z8Zp7udfVFRPISZJ5Yrp_pt_GQisKpDN=   
   33hfaeCysixVbFQTJoxWZ5IdstaPWSSXyeVCXsUZ-df2Myk$=20   
      
   =3D =3D =3D   
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