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   PID: Synchronet 3.21a-Linux master/123f2d28a Jul 12 2025 GCC 12.2.0   
   TID: SBBSecho 3.28-Linux master/123f2d28a Jul 12 2025 GCC 12.2.0   
   BBSID: CAPCITY2   
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   ACUS01 KWNS 230541   
   SWODY1   
   SPC AC 230539   
      
   Day 1 Convective Outlook   
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK   
   1139 PM CST Thu Jan 22 2026   
      
   Valid 231200Z - 241200Z   
      
   ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...   
      
   ...SUMMARY...   
   Scattered weak thunderstorm activity is likely today into tonight   
   across the Texas Big Bend region into central Texas.   
      
   ...Synopsis...   
   Late-evening water-vapor imagery depicts increasing ascent across   
   northern Mexico into the Southwest/Big Bend region of TX as an upper   
   low off the southern CA coast begins to slowly shift east. At the   
   surface, a cold front continues to push south across the Plains with   
   modest moisture return ongoing along the TX Coastal Plain.   
   Precipitation is expected to slowly increase from the Big Bend   
   region northeastward into the southern Plains/Ozark Plateau through   
   the day as isentropic ascent strengthens across central TX. Isolated   
   to scattered thunderstorm development is anticipated along and north   
   of the cold front as it impinges on a plume of returning moisture.   
      
   ...Big Bend Region to Central Texas...   
   Moisture return of mid 50s to low 60s dewpoints along and south of   
   the I-10 corridor and into the Big Bend region is expected by   
   evening and should support a swath of 500-1000 J/kg MLCAPE.   
   Scattered thunderstorm development is expected along the front   
   across the Edwards Plateau by early evening, spreading east as the   
   front pushes further into the unstable air mass. While a few storms   
   may initially be surface-based, northeastward storm motions will   
   quickly displace any deep convection onto the cool side of the   
   boundary. Wind profiles are expected to strengthen through the day   
   in response to the approaching upper wave, and could support   
   effective shear values on the order of 40 knots. Despite this, a   
   combination of modest buoyancy profiles (lifted indices generally -2   
   to -3 C), rapid undercutting by the front, and a propensity for   
   storm interactions/upscale growth should largely mitigate the   
   potential for severe convection.   
      
   A few CAM solutions, notably the 00z HRRR, hint at the potential for   
   upscale growth of a surface-based convective cluster as it   
   propagates eastward along the front with an attendant threat for   
   damaging winds. While plausible given the aforementioned CAPE/shear   
   parameter space, the lack of supporting signal in other CAM   
   solutions and ensemble/calibrated guidance, along with unfavorable   
   phasing with the diurnal cycle, suggest that this is a relatively   
   low probability scenario.   
      
   ..Moore/Thornton.. 01/23/2026   
      
   $$   
      
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