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   PID: Synchronet 3.21a-Linux master/123f2d28a Jul 12 2025 GCC 12.2.0   
   TID: SBBSecho 3.28-Linux master/123f2d28a Jul 12 2025 GCC 12.2.0   
   BBSID: CAPCITY2   
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   ACUS02 KWNS 230637   
   SWODY2   
   SPC AC 230636   
      
   Day 2 Convective Outlook   
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK   
   1236 AM CST Fri Jan 23 2026   
      
   Valid 241200Z - 251200Z   
      
   ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...   
      
   ...SUMMARY...   
   Severe thunderstorms are not anticipated across the U.S. Saturday   
   through Saturday night.   
      
   ...Synopsis...   
   The mid-level pattern over the CONUS is forecast to amplify   
   significantly this weekend as initially split flow consolidates   
   behind a departing East Coast upper trough. Several short wave   
   perturbations (over the Southwest, northern Mexico, and southern   
   Canada) will gradually consolidate into larger-scale mid-level   
   troughing across the Rockies and Great Plains by late Saturday   
   night.   
      
   As upper troughing becomes established, a strong Arctic cold front   
   will rapidly move south with high pressure (1045+ mb) building in   
   its wake. An extensive cold intrusion will occur with significant   
   latitudinal suppression of lee cyclogenesis to far northern Mex and   
   the southern Gulf Coast. This will greatly limit inland moisture   
   return. Still, strong lift in the form of isentropic ascent over top   
   the front will support widespread winter precipitation (some   
   possibly with isolated lightning) over the Plains and south-central   
   US much of Saturday.   
      
   ...South Texas Coast...   
   As the strong Arctic high pressure building over the southern Plains   
   forces the cold front to surge south, the Arctic air mass will   
   rapidly undercut the a remnant warm sector over parts of Far South   
   TX. Strong isentropic ascent over the shallow surface front will   
   allow for modest elevated destabilization. However, poor mid-level   
   lapse rates (6-6.5 C/km) and the overnight arrival of the more   
   consolidated upper ascent should preclude the development of larger   
   buoyancy. Thus, while a stronger storm is briefly possible along the   
   immediate coast or elevated behind the front, the overall severe   
   risk appears quite limited.   
      
   ..Lyons.. 01/23/2026   
      
   $$   
      
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