TZUTC: 0000   
   MSGID: 168808.weather@1:2320/105 2dda8dd2   
   PID: Synchronet 3.21a-Linux master/123f2d28a Jul 12 2025 GCC 12.2.0   
   TID: SBBSecho 3.28-Linux master/123f2d28a Jul 12 2025 GCC 12.2.0   
   BBSID: CAPCITY2   
   CHRS: ASCII 1   
   FORMAT: flowed   
   ACUS01 KWNS 230044   
   SWODY1   
   SPC AC 230042   
      
   Day 1 Convective Outlook   
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK   
   0642 PM CST Thu Jan 22 2026   
      
   Valid 230100Z - 231200Z   
      
   ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...   
      
   ...SUMMARY...   
   Thunderstorms are not expected across the country through tonight.   
      
   ...Synopsis...   
   Lightning activity off the southeastern FL coast has diminished over   
   the past several hours amid weakening broad-scale ascent and modest   
   mid-level height rises. While sporadic weak convection remains   
   possible off the coast, the overall thunderstorm potential appears   
   sufficiently limited to warrant removal of thunder probabilities.   
      
   Elsewhere across the country, 00z RAOBs sampled mostly dry and   
   stable conditions that will largely mitigate thunderstorm potential.   
   A few recent model runs hint that 50-100 MUCAPE may develop across   
   southern AZ/NM as broad-scale lift increases ahead of the upper wave   
   currently over southern CA. Forecast equilibrium temperatures near   
   -20 C could support sporadic lightning flashes during the 08-12 UTC   
   time frame. However, consensus among guidance is very limited on   
   this potential, and the recent 00z TUS sounding suggests substantial   
   moistening within the lowest 300 mb is required before thunderstorms   
   can be supported.   
      
   ..Moore.. 01/23/2026   
      
   $$   
      
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   --- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux   
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