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   QPFERD   
      
   Excessive Rainfall Discussion   
   NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD   
   725 PM EST Thu Jan 22 2026   
      
   Day 1   
   Valid 01Z Fri Jan 23 2026 - 12Z Fri Jan 23 2026   
      
   The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is less   
   than 5 percent.   
      
   Bann   
      
      
   Day 2   
   Valid 12Z Fri Jan 23 2026 - 12Z Sat Jan 24 2026   
      
   ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ACROSS THE TEXAS   
   HILL COUNTRY...   
      
   Gulf inflow ahead of an incoming upper level trough across the   
   Northern Plains/West brings overrunning moisture into South-Central   
   TX, with precipitable water values rising to 1.25" within a cool   
   atmosphere with 5610 m 1000-500 hPa thickness, implying complete   
   saturation. RAP forecasts show MU CAPE rising to 500+ J/kg,   
   implying a heavy rain threat. The 12z HREF/06z REFS agree, showing   
   high enough probabilities of 0.5"+ an hour and 3"+ in 24 hours to   
   be of concern to the Hill Country, where there is limited topsoil   
   to prevent runoff. This new Marginal Risk was added in   
   collaboration with the EWX/New Braunfels TX, SJT/San Angelo TX,   
   and FWD/Fort Worth TX forecast offices.   
      
   Roth   
      
      
   Day 3   
   Valid 12Z Sat Jan 24 2026 - 12Z Sun Jan 25 2026   
      
   ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL NEAR THE   
   NORTHWEST GULF COAST...   
      
   An upper level trough phasing as it moves through the Rockies lures   
   sufficient Gulf moisture into Southeast TX/the Upper TX Coast and   
   southwest Louisiana, with precipitable water values rising to   
   1.25-1.75". Considering the coolness of the environment, this   
   should lead to atmospheric saturation. The region is diffluent   
   aloft and does not appear to be capped...700 hPa temperatures are   
   forecast to be below 6C. MU CAPE rises above 1000 J/kg, at times.   
   Inflow at 850 hPa/effective bulk shear appears sufficient for   
   convective organization. Hourly rain amounts to 2.5" with local   
   totals to 5" are possible, given the above ingredients. The 12z   
   UKMET, 12z Canadian Regional/RDPM, and 00z ECMWF have a signal for   
   heavy rainfall in this region, though the 12z GFS does not. Enough   
   of a signal exists for a Marginal Risk area to be hoisted this   
   cycle. Over the past week, it has been wet across portions of   
   Jefferson, Orange, & Galveston Counties in TX as well as portions   
   of southwest LA south of I-10. Isolated to widely scattered issues   
   would be mostly confined to urban areas.   
      
   Roth   
      
      
   Day 1 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go=   
   v/qpf/94epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!4CYFg0eRCw186Mt1Q9CfbomyYY8PvUAxN1ZBTwNakJ3n=   
   wyQ4DfTl5FArYCWTEbU4rIS5HiPaCFDwQr_mjSZNM6MUelg$=20   
   Day 2 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go=   
   v/qpf/98epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!4CYFg0eRCw186Mt1Q9CfbomyYY8PvUAxN1ZBTwNakJ3n=   
   wyQ4DfTl5FArYCWTEbU4rIS5HiPaCFDwQr_mjSZN23DchlE$=20   
   Day 3 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go=   
   v/qpf/99epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!4CYFg0eRCw186Mt1Q9CfbomyYY8PvUAxN1ZBTwNakJ3n=   
   wyQ4DfTl5FArYCWTEbU4rIS5HiPaCFDwQr_mjSZNEOZn5Uo$=20   
      
   =3D =3D =3D   
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