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   PID: Synchronet 3.21a-Linux master/123f2d28a Jul 12 2025 GCC 12.2.0   
   TID: SBBSecho 3.28-Linux master/123f2d28a Jul 12 2025 GCC 12.2.0   
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   ACUS03 KWNS 221915   
   SWODY3   
   SPC AC 221914   
      
   Day 3 Convective Outlook   
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK   
   0114 PM CST Thu Jan 22 2026   
      
   Valid 241200Z - 251200Z   
      
   ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...   
      
   ...SUMMARY...   
   The risk for severe thunderstorms appears negligible across the U.S.   
   Saturday through Saturday night.   
      
   ...Discussion...   
   Downstream of amplified split flow across the Pacific into western   
   North America, models indicate that several short wave troughs will   
   gradually consolidate into larger-scale mid-level troughing across   
   the Rockies and Great Plains into Mississippi Valley during this   
   period.  This is likely to include at least a couple of merging   
   perturbations of Canadian Arctic origin digging across the   
   international border through the northern U.S. Rockies and Great   
   Plains, and another emerging from the northern mid-latitude Pacific   
   before digging inland across the Pacific Northwest coast through the   
   Great Basin.  Yet another impulse, emerging from the southern   
   mid-latitude eastern Pacific, is generally forecast to accelerate   
   across Baja and the northern Mexican Plateau, into the southern   
   Great Plains by late Saturday night.   
      
   Preceded by the southeastward development of an expansive cold   
   surface ridge across much of the nation to the east of the Rockies,   
   as far south as the Gulf coast vicinity, the potential for   
   significant lee surface cyclogenesis appears low through this   
   period.  However, latest guidance appears generally consistent   
   indicating modestly deepening surface troughing, accompanying   
   erosion of the cold air, in one corridor across the lower   
   Mississippi Valley toward the lower Ohio Valley, and another   
   near/offshore of the Carolina coast by late Saturday night.   
   Associated destabilization still appears likely to remain elevated,   
   and generally weak, in nature inland of northwestern and central   
   Gulf coastal areas, with negligible risk for severe weather through   
   at least 12Z Sunday.   
      
   ..Kerr.. 01/22/2026   
      
   $$   
      
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