TZUTC: 0000   
   MSGID: 168796.weather@1:2320/105 2dda2390   
   PID: Synchronet 3.21a-Linux master/123f2d28a Jul 12 2025 GCC 12.2.0   
   TID: SBBSecho 3.28-Linux master/123f2d28a Jul 12 2025 GCC 12.2.0   
   BBSID: CAPCITY2   
   CHRS: ASCII 1   
   FORMAT: flowed   
   ACUS02 KWNS 221711   
   SWODY2   
   SPC AC 221709   
      
   Day 2 Convective Outlook   
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK   
   1109 AM CST Thu Jan 22 2026   
      
   Valid 231200Z - 241200Z   
      
   ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...   
      
   ...SUMMARY...   
   Scattered weak thunderstorm activity appears possible Friday into   
   Friday night in a corridor across the Texas Big Bend into central   
   Texas.   
      
   ...Discussion...   
   A confluent mid-level regime will generally be maintained   
   across and east of the Rockies through this period, downstream of   
   amplified split flow across the central/eastern Pacific into far   
   western North America.  Although models continue to indicate that   
   peak surface pressures within the center of initially prominent,   
   cold surface ridging will begin to fall while it slowly shifts east   
   of the Missouri Valley, appreciable modification of the Arctic air   
   will be slow, and it is likely to continue surging southward across   
   the remainder of the southern Great Plains, through much of south   
   central and southwestern Texas by late Friday night.   
      
   The leading edge of this air mass is also forecast to advance   
   further offshore of the southern Mid Atlantic coast, but slower   
   southward through the eastern Gulf Coast states and lower   
   Mississippi Valley.  Models indicate that this will occur beneath a   
   broad building mid-level ridge east of the Rio Grande Valley into   
   the Southeast, downstream of digging mid-level troughing across the   
   international border into the northern U.S. Rockies/Great Plains and   
   a short wave trough emerging from the southern mid-latitude eastern   
   Pacific.   
      
   There is notable continuing spread concerning the eastward   
   acceleration of the southern perturbation, generally toward Baja,   
   Friday through Friday night.  However, an increasingly moist and   
   strengthening downstream southerly return flow still appears   
   probable across and north of the lower Rio Grande Valley and Texas   
   coastal areas, particularly during the latter half of the period.   
      
   ...Southern Great Plains across/northeast of Red River Valley...   
   Forecast soundings and other model output continue to indicate that   
   lower/mid-tropospheric thermal and moisture advection may lead to   
   thermodynamic profiles characterized by at least very weak to weak   
   conditional instability in a sizable swath from the northern Mexican   
   Plateau across the southern Great Plains, including north and   
   northeast of the Red River Valley.  However, particularly with   
   north-northeastward extent, above the southward surging cold surface   
   air, these same soundings generally exhibit little in the way of   
   convective instability, with profiles tending to becoming saturated   
   while also warming aloft.  So the extent of potential for convective   
   development capable of producing lightning remains unclear Friday   
   through Friday night.   
      
   Modestly steeper mid-level lapse rates, and perhaps better potential   
   for weak thunderstorm activity, may remain confined to a corridor   
   across the Texas Big Bend into Edwards Plateau, and adjacent   
   portions of central Texas, where mid/upper support for convective   
   development may be aided by a short wave perturbation emanating from   
   the subtropical eastern Pacific.   
      
   ..Kerr.. 01/22/2026   
      
   $$   
      
   = = =   
   To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to   
   https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link.  Otherwise email   
   Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.   
      
   --- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux   
    * Origin: Capitol City Online (1:2320/105)   
   SEEN-BY: 1/19 100 16/0 19/10 37 104/119 105/81 106/201 114/10 120/302   
   SEEN-BY: 123/130 128/187 129/14 142/104 153/757 7715 154/10 30 50   
   SEEN-BY: 154/110 700 203/0 218/700 840 220/10 20 90 221/1 6 360 226/18   
   SEEN-BY: 226/30 44 50 227/114 229/110 134 206 300 307 317 400 426   
   SEEN-BY: 229/428 470 664 700 705 240/5832 266/512 280/5003 291/111   
   SEEN-BY: 301/1 320/119 219 319 2119 322/757 762 326/101 335/364 341/66   
   SEEN-BY: 342/200 396/45 423/81 460/58 633/280 712/848 902/26 2320/0   
   SEEN-BY: 2320/105 304 3634/12 5020/400 5075/35   
   PATH: 2320/105 154/10 221/6 1 320/219 229/426