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   FOUS30 KWBC 221519   
   QPFERD   
      
   Excessive Rainfall Discussion   
   NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD   
   1019 AM EST Thu Jan 22 2026   
      
   Day 1   
   Valid 16Z Thu Jan 22 2026 - 12Z Fri Jan 23 2026   
      
   The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is less   
   than 5 percent.   
      
   A mesoscale cyclone appears to have formed near the intersection=20   
   of a weak surface trough/front east to northeast of Biscayne Bay.=20   
   This combination has led to thunderstorm development with heavy=20   
   rainfall, which up until this point has only impacted southern   
   portions of Key Biscayne though some cells recently are=20   
   threatening to move ashore a little farther north across Key   
   Biscayne and near Fisher Island. The airmass along and east of the   
   coast is sufficiently moist and unstable for thunderstorms with=20   
   heavy rainfall, and effective bulk shear supports the formation of=20   
   random mesocyclones. The low-level inflow to the east north of the=20   
   mesocyclone runs counter to the westerly flow aloft, with the=20   
   combination leading to minimal cell movement. The overall threat of   
   heavier rainfall materializing over urban areas of the I-95=20   
   corridor still appears to be fairly isolated. The overall threat=20   
   appears to wane after 19z/2 pm EST when the guidance implies that=20   
   the mesocyclone near South Florida drifts eastward. A non- zero=20   
   threat of flash flooding exists, but convective coverage and the=20   
   brevity of the thunderstorm risk precludes any addition of Marginal   
   areas at this time.   
      
   Isolated showers across southern California may also impact   
   portions of the Transverse and Peninsular Ranges as well, with=20   
   brief heavy rain occurring near burn scars across the area. The air   
   mass should be sufficiently moist, with precipitable water values   
   in the 0.75-1" range. Bubbles of 100+ J/kg of MU CAPE lie offshore   
   at the present time. This should maximize hourly rain amounts in   
   the 0.4" neighborhood. The 12z HREF probabilities of 0.5"+ in an=20   
   area are below 15%, also implying that lesser hourly amounts are   
   expected. The threat for flash flooding here is also less than 5%=20   
   although an isolated instance of excessive runoff cannot be=20   
   completely ruled out.   
      
   Roth/Cook   
      
      
   Day 2   
   Valid 12Z Fri Jan 23 2026 - 12Z Sat Jan 24 2026   
      
   The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is less   
   than 5 percent.   
      
   Cook   
      
      
   Day 3   
   Valid 12Z Sat Jan 24 2026 - 12Z Sun Jan 25 2026   
      
   The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is less   
   than 5 percent.   
      
   Cook   
      
      
   Day 1 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go=   
   v/qpf/94epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!9ATTRa2ZH13UBCblYS3MGlVDiuoItoOTwY4wqS_n6nHz=   
   oADuDME87uf9Ea05UsnNVbnIbx06LX4KlAr8Vf5nh4AA59o$=20   
   Day 2 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go=   
   v/qpf/98epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!9ATTRa2ZH13UBCblYS3MGlVDiuoItoOTwY4wqS_n6nHz=   
   oADuDME87uf9Ea05UsnNVbnIbx06LX4KlAr8Vf5nYBceths$=20   
   Day 3 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go=   
   v/qpf/99epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!9ATTRa2ZH13UBCblYS3MGlVDiuoItoOTwY4wqS_n6nHz=   
   oADuDME87uf9Ea05UsnNVbnIbx06LX4KlAr8Vf5n5YWWHo8$=20   
      
   =3D =3D =3D   
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