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   948    
   AXNT20 KNHC 221020   
   TWDAT    
      
   Tropical Weather Discussion   
   NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL   
   1215 UTC Thu Jan 22 2026   
      
   Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America   
   Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South   
   America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the   
   Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite   
   imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.   
      
   Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1000 UTC.   
      
   ...SPECIAL FEATURES...    
      
   Caribbean Gale Warning: A strong ridge north of the Caribbean Sea   
   is supporting gale-force NE winds that will prevail through this   
   morning over the waters offshore Colombia. Winds will continue to    
   pulse to near-gale in the same area through the end of the week.    
   Rough seas are forecast with these winds.    
      
   Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National    
   Hurricane Center at website:   
   https://nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml   
    for more details.   
      
   ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...   
      
   The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of    
   Africa near 08N13W and continues southwestward to 02N27W. The    
   ITCZ extends from 02N27W to 00N50W. Scattered moderate convection   
   is noted S of 07N and E of 32W.    
      
   ...GULF OF MEXICO...   
      
   High pressure over the western Atlantic extends a ridge to the   
   Gulf waters, supporting moderate to fresh easterly winds and    
   moderate seas east of 90W. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and   
   moderate seas prevail. Light showers are evident in the Florida    
   Straits due to a dissipating stationary front.   
      
   For the forecast, the next cold front is expected to enter the NW   
   Gulf Sat followed by fresh to strong NW to N winds and building    
   seas. Reinforcing high pressure in the wake of the front, may    
   bring near-gale to gale conditions first near Tampico Sun night,    
   then near Veracruz on Mon.    
      
   ...CARIBBEAN SEA...   
      
   Please read the Special Features section on a Gale Warning off the   
   coast of Colombia.   
      
   Outside of the south-central Caribbean, a surface trough, and    
   associated area of moisture, has entered the eastern Caribbean   
   enhancing convection. A strong subtropical ridge over the central   
   Atlantic supports moderate to strong easterly winds and rough    
   seas in the north-central and NE Caribbean, including the    
   Windward Passage. Moderate to fresh easterly breezes and moderate    
   seas are found in the SE Caribbean and lee of Cuba. Elsewhere,    
   moderate or lighter winds and moderate seas are evident.    
      
   For the forecast, gale force NE winds will prevail through early this    
   morning over the waters offshore Colombia. Winds will continue to    
   pulse to near-gale in the same area through the end of the week.    
   The trough in the E Caribbean will continue moving W through the    
   week, increasing the likelihood of scattered showers and isolated   
   thunderstorms over the islands and surrounding waters.    
      
   ...ATLANTIC OCEAN...   
      
   A surface trough is analyzed from 30N72W to 23N80W. A few showers   
   are noted near this boundary. The tropical Atlantic is dominated    
   by an extensive, strong ridge north of Bermuda, supporting fresh    
   to strong easterly trade winds and rough seas south of 27N and    
   east of 75W. The strongest winds and highest seas are found south    
   of 20N and between the Lesser Antilles and Africa. Moderate to     
   fresh easterly winds and moderate to rough seas are noted west of    
   75W. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas are    
   prevalent. A weak surface trough east of the Lesser Antilles and    
   divergence aloft sustains scattered showers south of 20N and east    
   of 47W.   
      
   For the forecast west of 55W, the Atlantic high pressure will continue   
   to promote fresh to strong NE to E winds and rough seas east of    
   75W through today. The pressure gradient over the W Atlantic will    
   continue to support fresh NE winds in the vicinity of the Bahamas    
   and the Straits of Florida through this morning. The next cold    
   front will likely move offshore NE FL by Mon. Ahead of the front,    
   fresh to strong SW winds are possible on Sun night, mainly W of    
   75W.    
      
   $$   
   ERA   
      
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