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   QPFERD   
      
   Excessive Rainfall Discussion   
   NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD   
   238 AM EST Thu Jan 22 2026   
      
   Day 1   
   Valid 12Z Thu Jan 22 2026 - 12Z Fri Jan 23 2026   
      
   The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is less   
   than 5 percent.   
      
   A weak surface trough/frontal boundary may spark a few   
   thunderstorms across southeastern Florida between 15Z and 00Z   
   today. The airmass along and east of the coast should be plenty   
   moist and unstable, with weak kinematics below 500mb supporting   
   slow movement of any cells that may develop. Modest/marginal ascent   
   aloft and weak lapse rates should keep the overall threat of   
   heavier rainfall materializing over urban areas of the I-95   
   corridor fairly isolated. A non-zero threat of flash flooding   
   exists, but convective coverage and the brevity of the thunderstorm   
   risk precludes any addition of Marginal areas at this time.   
      
   Isolated showers across southern California may also impact   
   portions of the Transverse Ranges as well, with brief heavy rain   
   occurring near burn scars across the area. The threat for flash   
   flooding here is also less than 5% although an isolated instance of   
   excessive runoff cannot be completely ruled out.   
      
   Cook   
      
      
   Day 2   
   Valid 12Z Fri Jan 23 2026 - 12Z Sat Jan 24 2026   
      
   The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is less   
   than 5 percent.   
      
   Cook   
      
      
   Day 3   
   Valid 12Z Sat Jan 24 2026 - 12Z Sun Jan 25 2026   
      
   The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is less   
   than 5 percent.   
      
   Cook   
      
      
   Day 1 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go=   
   v/qpf/94epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!5bbuavJlmiKOVvq3CE5weaa4-xiE7I2arWSo7_IQI4Eb=   
   -B0E3_C8-4r0hl9_9SmZ78y2cBw2ynj2dyOt2lXySb2dK80$=20   
   Day 2 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go=   
   v/qpf/98epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!5bbuavJlmiKOVvq3CE5weaa4-xiE7I2arWSo7_IQI4Eb=   
   -B0E3_C8-4r0hl9_9SmZ78y2cBw2ynj2dyOt2lXyhkAPYZ4$=20   
   Day 3 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go=   
   v/qpf/99epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!5bbuavJlmiKOVvq3CE5weaa4-xiE7I2arWSo7_IQI4Eb=   
   -B0E3_C8-4r0hl9_9SmZ78y2cBw2ynj2dyOt2lXy3R1-yGY$=20   
      
   =3D =3D =3D   
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   --- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux   
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